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CICC Wealth: Short-term Market Cooling Requires Attention to Three Major Changes

On June 11, CICC Wealth published an article stating that the recent continuous fluctuations in the market have indeed been a test. However, there is no need to be alarmed by the 'changes' in the short-term market, as this may be a necessary proactive cooling by the market itself. First Change: The technology sector has become overly crowded and needs space to maneuver. You may have noticed that discussions around chips, computing power, and storage have shifted from opportunities to consensus. From a data perspective, valuations in semiconductors, communication equipment, components, consumer electronics, optical electronics, and power have all reached relatively high levels not seen in nearly a decade, with daily trading volumes exceeding 100 billion. As of June 5, communication equipment and components even reached near decade-high percentile levels, with the transaction volume in the semiconductor and communication equipment sectors accounting for over 40% of the entire market. When everyone is crowded into the same sector, any minor disturbance can be amplified into panic. Second Change: Index reconstruction naturally amplifies volatility. An index is what it is, but it may no longer be the same index as in previous years. After rapid increases in industries such as communication, semiconductors, and batteries, market capitalizations have surged, and index components have been readjusted according to their respective rules, incorporating these leading stocks into their weights, significantly increasing the technological content of the indices. Technology stocks seem to have become the heart of the index, and any fluctuations are likely to trigger index resonance, amplifying volatility. Third Change: Hot money on leverage comes quickly and leaves quickly. As of June 5, the total margin balance across the market reached 2.89 trillion yuan, surpassing the peak in 2015. The top four industries (semiconductors, communication equipment, securities, and batteries) have financing balances nearing 700 billion yuan, accounting for over 20%. After a sustained market rally, the structure of market funds and trading heat has reached a high range, further amplifying the volatility elasticity of short-term market conditions.

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