On September 14, Goldman Sachs significantly raised its forecast for high-speed optical module demand after visiting 15 optical communication companies in China. The demand for 800G and above optical modules for 2027 and 2028 was increased by 39% and 36% respectively, reaching 144 million units and 171 million units. Goldman Sachs also predicts that the price of 1.6T optical modules will remain above $700, with the price reduction for 800G products in 2027 expected to be in single digits. The growth in demand is primarily driven by the expansion of AI server racks, the shift in network architecture from horizontal to vertical scaling, and the ongoing upgrades of optical modules to higher speeds. The surveyed companies expect overall demand in the Chinese market to achieve double-digit growth, exceeding 50 million units, with 800G and 400G still dominating, while 1.6T is in the early stages of scaling. Goldman Sachs believes that industry constraints are shifting from the demand side to the supply side, with key components such as DSPs, lasers, and PCBs remaining in short supply, which may directly limit actual shipments in 2027. Meanwhile, leading manufacturers are securing production capacity through prepayments, long-term supply agreements, and investments in suppliers, which may further enhance industry concentration and support high-speed optical module price performance. Regarding CPOs, Goldman Sachs expects CPO switch shipments to increase from 10,000 units in 2026 to 92,000 units in 2027 and 131,000 units in 2028, with testing and coupling equipment vendors likely to benefit first. Robotech's revenue in the second quarter grew by 172% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding Goldman Sachs' expectation of 141%, with visibility for related equipment orders extending to 2028.
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