The information, opinions and judgments on markets, projects, currencies, etc. mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.

Written by  0xWeilan

This week, BTC opened at $82,562.50 and closed at $86,092.94, up 4.28% for the week, with an amplitude of 7.71%. It rose for two consecutive weeks, and the trading volume fell for three weeks. The BTC price is running in a downward channel, approaching the upper edge of the channel.

This week, the Federal Reserve made a dovish tone at its interest rate meeting, saying it would intervene if there were problems in the economy and hinting that there would be two interest rate cuts this year.

After the U.S. stock market stabilized, funds flowed into the ETF channel, and BTC stabilized and rebounded to the upper edge of the downward channel.

With the release of PCE data in the United States next week, BTC prices will also face directional choices.

On March 19, the Fed made the decision widely expected by the market at its interest rate meeting, maintaining the benchmark interest rate unchanged and keeping the key lending rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%. In addition, the Fed also hinted that it would cut interest rates by another 50 basis points in 2025 and announced an adjustment to the pace of its bond reduction.

Fed Chairman Powell said they have lowered their economic growth forecasts and stressed that Trump's tariff policy is the biggest factor in rising inflation. However, the U.S. stock market, which has fallen for three consecutive weeks, has focused on its most anticipated guarantee - if the economic situation worsens, the Fed will take action.

A clear signal of "saving the market" is to slow down the pace of balance sheet reduction from April 1, adjusting the upper limit of U.S. debt reduction from $25 billion per month to $5 billion. The slowdown of balance sheet reduction is seen as a boost to the bond market. The Fed has made a relatively "dovish" response to the market decline, indicating that it is on the way to achieving its inflation target and is always paying attention to the stability of employment and equity markets to prevent a bigger crisis.

In the struggle between the rate cut relay and the US President's tariff chaos, although the Federal Reserve still maintains its position, its attitude has undoubtedly begun to soften. Both the two rate cut guidance and the lowering of the upper limit of US debt reduction are understood as protection for the decline of stocks and bonds.

Therefore, although the fundamental problems of "chaotic tariff policy" and "economic stagflation" have not changed, the market that has experienced declines has begun to stabilize and rebound. The US dollar index rose 0.25% this week. The Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones rose 0.17%, 0.51% and 1.2% this week. The yields of 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds fell 1.59% and 1.39% to 3.9670% and 4.2580% respectively.

Another part of the funds continued to choose safe-haven gold. London gold achieved a three-week consecutive increase, rising 1.23% this week to close at $3,023.31 per ounce.

In terms of funds, the biggest variable BTC Spot ETF showed a breakthrough signal. After falling for five consecutive weeks, it ushered in positive inflows this week, with net inflows of $1.05 billion recorded in all five trading days of the week. This large-scale inflow has become a strong support for BTC prices to bottom out and rebound.

In terms of stablecoins, $958 million flowed in throughout the week. In this way, a total of $1.95 billion flowed in from all channels, providing material support for the panic-filled market.

Crypto market capital inflow and outflow statistics ( eMerge Engine)

BTC Spot ETF channel funds have once again shown their role as a stabilizing force. We need to keep a close eye on the subsequent market trends. Of course, BTC Spot ETF funds are basically subject to the trend of US stocks, which makes it extremely difficult to predict BTC prices.

As the price rebounded, the market selling pressure also weakened significantly and dropped to 114,992 coins. According to eMerge Engine data, long hands reduced their holdings by 3,284 coins and short hands reduced their holdings by 111,709 coins this week.

Long-term positions increased by 73,000 coins throughout the week, and the exchange inventory decreased by nearly 7,000 coins. The selling pressure of the short-term group was continuously absorbed, indicating that the long-term group recognized the current price.

According to the eMerge engine, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0.375, and the market is in an upward relay period.

EMC Labs was founded by crypto asset investors and data scientists in April 2023. It focuses on blockchain industry research and Crypto secondary market investment, takes industry foresight, insight and data mining as its core competitiveness, and is committed to participating in the booming blockchain industry through research and investment, and promoting blockchain and crypto assets to bring benefits to mankind.

For more information, please visit: https://www.emc.fund