Chance of Trump Winning the Election

As the 2024 Presidential election approaches, the probability of Donald Trump winning is a hot topic of discussion. According to Polymarket, a popular prediction market platform, the odds of Trump winning are 46% (note that the Polymarket user base is likely more digitally native and pro-crypto, so it could be biased toward Trump). While prediction markets are not definitive, they are indicative of current public sentiment.

Source: Polymarket, as of 13th August 2024

VP Selection: J.D. Vance

Donald Trump has selected J.D. Vance, a former venture capitalist with a strong pro-crypto stance, as his running mate for the 2024 election. Vance has held between $100,000 and $250,000 worth of crypto on Coinbase in 2022, according to financial disclosures for 2022. He is already getting stuck in, according to Politico, circulating a draft proposal that would overhaul how Washington’s top two regulators oversee crypto. He’s made comments criticising Canada’s attempt to freeze bank accounts of those protesting against COVID-19 restrictions, as well as criticising Biden’s infrastructure law that imposed tax reporting requirements on crypto firms.

Trump’s Pro-Crypto Policies and Previous Comments

Donald Trump’s relationship with Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies has evolved significantly. Initially sceptical, Trump has recently shown a growing interest in digital assets, partly influenced by his successful venture into crypto-based NFTs, which have allegedly generated millions of dollars in revenue for the Trump campaign, as he likely mints his 4th generation drop of his ‘mug shot’. He has expressed support for crypto and has started accepting campaign donations in Bitcoin. He also met with Bitcoin miners in June and posted on his Truth Social account that Bitcoin Miners may be “our last line of defence against a CBDC,” referring to a central bank digital currency. He added that he wants all remaining Bitcoin to be “made in the USA”.

Trump also reiterated he would fire the SEC Chairman Gary Gensler on day one of his Presidency, if he wins, due to his anti-crypto lawsuits and poor progression on crypto regulation. This move might be more beneficial for alt-coins than Bitcoin, however, still positive, regardless. Further, Trump made comments embracing stablecoins to extend US Dollar dominance, end Operation Chokepoint 2.0 and block future attempts of CBDCs.

The recent Bitcoin 2024 conference held by Bitcoin Magazine was a momentous occasion for the asset. As the front-runner for the 2024 Presidential election, Trump had the least bullish comments compared to Sen. Lummis and Presidential Candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr mentioning “ to keep 100% of all the Bitcoin the US government currently holds or acquires into the future… This will serve in effect as the core of the strategic national Bitcoin stockpile.” Sen. Lummis announced The Bitcoin Act which would:

Inflation Policies and Economic Track Record

Trump’s economic policies have consistently combined tax cuts with protectionist measures. During his previous term, his administration managed the expansion of the money supply with relative discipline compared to his Presidential peers, until the COVID-19 pandemic struck. However, this does not necessarily predict Trump’s future monetary and fiscal policy in a potential second term. His nationalist stance on tariffs and trade policies is inflationary and could affect geopolitical stability and the U.S. dollar’s status as a reserve currency. These factors collectively shape the broader economic environment in which Bitcoin operates.

Future Appointments and their Impact on Crypto

Trump indicated to Bloomberg in late June, according to Reuters, that he would not oust Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before the end of his term, suggesting a degree of continued hawkish monetary policy is on the horizon until 2026. However, it is wise to take everything Trump says with a large pinch of salt. Trump will likely want to hire a dove to lower rates and ease the monetary constraints on companies and households. Ultimately, a dovish Fed Chair will likely be very positive for digital assets and Bitcoin.

Furthermore, pro-crypto campaigns have received substantial fundraising support from major super PACs like Fairshake, which has raised $161m in total, spending $13.3m to oppose anti-crypto Democrats (91%), support pro-crypto Democrats (5%), and Republicans (4%), and transfer $15.4m to Defend American Jobs (98.7% support for pro-crypto Republican) and Protect Progress (98% support pro-crypto Democrats) super PACs. In our latest Fund Manager survey (please use this link to contribute to the next one), regulations are still the largest reason investors keep this asset class at arm’s length. Although seemingly improving since the approval and launch of spot BTC and ETH ETF, as well as S-1 filings for Solana.

Kamala Harris’ Crypto Policies

A more balanced approach to the crypto industry would represent a departure from the stance associated with the Biden administration, particularly the positions of figures like Senators Warren, Secretary Yellen, and SEC Chair Gensler, who have been more critical of the sector. Some members of the Democratic Party have begun to explore alternative perspectives on crypto regulation, as evidenced by the 32 Democrats who joined Republicans in supporting a bill to reconsider the SEC’s approach to digital assets — a bill that was ultimately vetoed by President Biden.

As a presidential candidate, it may be unwise to risk alienating the estimated 50 million Americans engaged with cryptocurrencies. With some Democrats already advocating for more positive crypto legislation, Vice President Harris has an opportunity to consider a similar path. Although she has yet to make her position on crypto clear, her past affiliations suggest a potentially cautious approach. In comparison, some speculate that a Harris presidency might be less favourable to Bitcoin and digital assets than a Trump presidency, though this remains to be seen.

In a potential second term, Trump’s economic policies could significantly impact Bitcoin. His protectionist measures and inflationary trade policies might weaken geopolitical stability and the U.S. dollar’s status as a reserve currency, indirectly benefiting Bitcoin as a hedge. On the other hand, a stronger dollar, typically correlated with Trump’s fiscal conservatism, could negatively impact the Bitcoin price. Meanwhile, Trump’s pro-crypto stance, especially with J.D. Vance as VP, could foster a more favourable regulatory environment for digital assets. Overall, Trump’s presidency could create a mixed but potentially advantageous landscape for Bitcoin. A more balanced approach to crypto could set Vice President Harris apart from the Biden administration’s more critical stance, aligning her with Democrats who are advocating for positive crypto legislation. Although Harris’s position on crypto is unclear, her past affiliations suggest a cautious approach, potentially making her presidency less favourable to digital assets than a Trump presidency.

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