Recently, Circle (stock code CRCL) has performed impressively in the US stock market, with a significant surge of 19.89% during trading, becoming the focus of the day. The core catalyst for this surge in stock price is the key breakthrough of the US Clarity Act (Crypto Market Structure Act). Over the weekend, US lawmakers reached a compromise on the bill, explicitly retaining the stablecoin reward program under certain conditions, completely eliminating the long-standing regulatory uncertainty in the crypto industry and opening up long-term growth opportunities for Circle, the leading compliant stablecoin company.

It is reported that last Friday, the core expression of this cryptocurrency legislative proposal was revised, explicitly prohibiting cryptocurrency platforms from issuing interest income similar to bank savings for users' idle stablecoin deposits, and returning such deposit-interest-paying businesses to traditional banks. However, at the same time, platforms are allowed to issue rewards linked to usage behavior, which can be tied to activities such as trading, transferring, and pledging. This adjustment is highly in line with market expectations and has become the key to boosting market sentiment.

This legislative trend coincides with the major development trend of the cryptocurrency industry, which is gradually moving away from purely high-yield financial products and towards leveraging cryptographic technology to upgrade traditional financial infrastructure. The Senate reached a compromise on the regulatory provisions for stablecoins, clearing the core differences that had hindered the advancement of the bill. This not only clarifies the regulatory framework for the industry but also further highlights the advantages of compliant stablecoin leaders such as Circle. The market generally expects that, as the regulatory framework gradually takes effect, USDC issued by Circle will continue to expand its market share in emerging scenarios such as cross-border payments and AI agent trading, leveraging its compliance advantages, with considerable long-term growth potential.

The surge in stock prices is also inseparable from the robust support of Circle's own business, as its core operations are entering a period of full growth. Data shows that the circulation volume of USDC has surpassed $79 billion, hitting a record high. The interest income generated from reserve assets has increased significantly, which has also made the company's profit forecast for the first quarter of 2026 more clear, and the fundamentals of its performance continue to be solidified. At the same time, the rise of the new industry narrative of "AI + stablecoin" has led to a comprehensive upgrade in the value positioning of USDC as the base currency for on-chain transactions. The market is driving its valuation reshaping from a "crypto cyclical stock" to a "Web3+AI infrastructure target", further boosting market expectations for Circle.

Driven by this, the sentiment in the cryptocurrency market has fully recovered, forming a trend of coordinated growth. Bitcoin once surpassed the $80,000 mark over the weekend, hitting a new high since January this year. Currently, it has fallen back to around $79,000, with overall moderate fluctuations. Cryptocurrency concept stocks have collectively strengthened, with Coinbase, the main distribution platform for Circle's USDC, rising by over 7%, BitGo and Galaxy Digital rising by 12% and 5% respectively. Market liquidity and risk appetite have significantly improved, and capital has accelerated its entry into the market for positioning. CRCL, as a core target in the industry, has been highly favored.

It is noteworthy that the amendments to the bill have differentiated impacts on different entities within the industry. For Circle and Coinbase, the bill clarifies the regulatory boundaries for stablecoin rewards, which is relatively beneficial. However, small and medium-sized cryptocurrency platforms that rely heavily on high-interest deposit products for new customer acquisition may face greater operational pressure. Most banks have not yet officially stated their position on the bill, but Bank of America believes that the overall benefits of the bill outweigh the drawbacks for the financial sector. In a research report on Monday, Bank of America analyst Ibrahim H. Punawalla stated that the conclusion of the Clarity Act and the resolution of the stablecoin revenue controversy will alleviate concerns about bank deposit loss, reduce regulatory uncertainty, and enable banks to participate in digital asset infrastructure business under more controllable rules.

The cryptocurrency industry as a whole has responded positively to the compromise bill. Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, who has been deeply involved in the discussions on the bill in Congress and has always advocated for fair competition between cryptocurrency enterprises and banks, took to the social platform X early on Monday to express his stance, calling it a "positive moment worth remembering" and highlighting the industry's anticipation for the implementation of regulation.

For investors, this event brings four core investment insights that require special attention:

Firstly, the Clarity Act is beneficial to Circle and Coinbase, but there is still a long way to go before it officially takes effect. It is necessary to track subsequent key milestones: deliberation by the Senate Banking Committee, a full-house vote, coordination with the House version, and presidential signing. After that, the Treasury Department and CFTC will have a one-year rule-making period, and the pace of regulatory implementation will directly affect the valuation of the underlying assets.

Secondly, the ban on Brazilian stablecoins has a limited financial impact on Circle, but the regulatory signal is worth being vigilant about. The ban mainly restricts cross-border settlement channels for institutions, and Circle's revenue share in Brazil is extremely low, so there is no need to worry in the short term. However, this regulatory model of "regulating channels while liberalizing holdings" may be replicated by other emerging markets. In the medium and long term, it is important to closely track the changing trends of revenue shares in various regions in Circle's quarterly financial reports.

Thirdly, the boundaries of "bona fide activities" will become the next focus of the game. This is the core variable during the rule-making period of the Ministry of Finance and the CFTC: if the definition is broad, the stablecoin earnings from DeFi lending agreements may gain a legal path; if the definition is narrow, stablecoin products may only be able to carry out basic activities such as consumer cashback, which will directly affect the product roadmaps of Coinbase and Circle. It is recommended to track the lobbying trends of the two companies and the public consultation draft of the Ministry of Finance.

Fourthly, focus on tracking the policy trends of three emerging market central banks. Brazil first blocked the extension of the IOF financial transaction tax to stablecoins and then closed the institutional cross-border payment channels. This regulatory approach of "tax first, channel later" may be replicated. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and the Indonesia Banking and Financial Supervisory Agency (OJK) are all emerging markets with high adoption rates of cryptocurrency and strict foreign exchange controls. If these countries follow the Brazilian model, it will pose a systemic bearish factor for the narrative of stablecoin internationalization.

Moving forward, the trajectory of Circle's stock price will still hinge on two key milestones: firstly, the first-quarter financial report data released on May 11, which will directly validate its ability to deliver on its performance; secondly, the final implementation pace of the Clarity Act. If regulatory progress goes smoothly and performance continues to be delivered, CRCL is expected to usher in a new round of valuation enhancement, continuously leading the wave of compliant development in the stablecoin industry.