Short term optimism is ultimately unable to withstand geopolitical fluctuations. The day before, after Axios exclusively reported that "the two sides are close to reaching a peace agreement," the global market experienced a brief frenzy, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting historic closing highs simultaneously. The S&P 500 surged 1.46% to 7365.12 points, while the Nasdaq surged 2.02% to 25838.94 points. However, this positive trend did not last for 24 hours. Iran's statement completely reversed market sentiment, causing the US stock market to fall from its high position. Bitcoin fell below the 80000 mark under pressure, and the global market once again fell into uncertainty.

###Core contradiction unresolved: deadlock in peace talks restarts, geopolitical risks resurface

The current market interpretation of the situation in the Middle East has become highly binary - either a peace agreement is reached or the war continues to escalate, and this week's diplomatic pace has precisely created intense market volatility. On Monday, Trump announced the suspension of the "Operation Freedom" escort mission, and Pakistani intermediaries sent a positive signal; On Tuesday, Saudi media even predicted that the passage rights in the Strait of Hormuz would break through within "a few hours". As a result, oil prices plummeted, with a drop of over 5% in the US oil market. Brent crude oil fell below $97 at one point.

But Iran's cooling statement quickly shattered the market's expectation of peace. The spokesperson of the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs clearly stated that the peace plan proposed by Washington is still under review, and the two key demands at the core of the proposal, namely "suspension of uranium enrichment" and "reopening of the Strait of Hormuz", have not made substantial progress. Among them, uranium enrichment is Iran's "red line" and will not be used as a bargaining chip in negotiations. At the same time, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the establishment of a new "control system" for the Strait of Hormuz, implying that even if it is opened for passage in the future, it will be a selective opening led by Iran, rather than an unconditional restoration.

The actions of the United States further intensified the tension: the US Treasury Department announced additional sanctions on Iran's related oil networks on the same day, and the US military reportedly used force against an Iranian oil tanker that violated the blockade in the strait. Economic pressure and military deterrence went hand in hand, showing that the US government has not shown any signs of letting go. According to Polymarket data reflecting market expectations, the probability of reaching a peace agreement before May 15th fell to 15% at one point, but rose slightly to 20% at the time of publication, indicating that the market's confidence in peace talks has been greatly undermined.

Oil prices subsequently experienced a sharp V-shaped reversal: Brent futures fell to $96.73 during trading, a drop of over 12%. After the news of negotiations cooled down, bulls re entered the market. Brent crude oil closed near $100 in the late trading session, while WTI crude oil closed near $90.5, both barely holding key integer levels. It is worth noting that the spot price of Brent has fallen below that of near month futures, indicating a reversal in the premium structure of the spot market. This suggests that the current supply of physical crude oil is relatively abundant, which is significantly different from the geopolitical risk of futures market pricing. In addition, US crude oil exports hit a historic high last week, and global buyers are accelerating their shift to US supply sources to avoid Middle Eastern transportation risks, which has also eased concerns about tight crude oil supply to some extent.

For the energy market, institutions have shown a sense of risk aversion. Aldo Spanjer, head of energy strategy at BNP Paribas, has stated that he has abandoned trading in the energy market, stating that "the outcome is too binary and the headline news is enough to trigger a stop loss. It has happened five times this week and is almost impossible to trade; TP ICAP energy analyst Scott Shelton defines the current market as a 'risk desert', with only hedging options remaining in the market, demonstrating the profound impact of geopolitical uncertainty on the energy market.

###Focus on: Can Bitcoin hold the 80000 mark?

Against the backdrop of a global risk sentiment reversal, the core asset of the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin, continues to be under pressure, with spot prices falling by about 1.56% on the same day and gaining support around $80000, becoming the core focus of market attention. But unlike previous rounds of panic selling, the structure of Bitcoin's pullback this time is relatively healthy, with multiple online and institutional data showing that the underlying support is still strong.

On chain data shows that the holding ratio of long-term Bitcoin holders has risen to 78.3% of the circulation, and the exchange balance has continuously dropped to a seven-year low. Whale Address has net bought about 270000 BTC in the past 30 days, demonstrating the firm holding attitude of long-term funds towards Bitcoin; At the institutional level, BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF holdings have risen to approximately $62 billion, and the institutional portfolio structure has stabilized. April of this year was the strongest net inflow of US spot Bitcoin ETFs since October 2025, with a net inflow of $2.44 billion. The continued entry of institutional funds has provided important support for Bitcoin.

Ethereum, on the other hand, has shown relatively strong performance. The overall sentiment this week benefited from the expectation of the implementation of US cryptocurrency regulatory legislation, with a cumulative increase of about 5.6% within 5 days, fluctuating in the range of $2360-2412, and maintaining a market value of about $233 billion. It is worth noting that the impact of the Middle East situation on the cryptocurrency market is showing structural differentiation: on the one hand, the soaring oil prices have pushed up inflation expectations, leading to an increase in the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, indirectly suppressing Bitcoin; On the other hand, some Middle Eastern capital is accelerating the transfer of assets to decentralized channels to avoid potential sanctions risks and liquidity constraints in the banking system. On the day of the additional sanctions on Iran's related oil network, there was a slight fluctuation in anonymous mixed currency trading volume on the chain, which is a signal worthy of continued attention.

In addition, the advancement of US cryptocurrency regulatory legislation has also to some extent supported market sentiment. At present, the stablecoin and digital asset market structure bills in the US House of Representatives and Senate are being pushed forward. If implemented within the year, they will provide regulatory support for institutions to further expand their allocation of cryptocurrency assets, which will be beneficial for the healthy development of the cryptocurrency market in the long run.

###High volatility in US stock market: Semiconductor leads decline, leading financial reports hit cold

Affected by the deadlock in the peace talks, the three major US stock indices closed down across the board, highlighting a high volatility pattern. On Thursday, the S&P 500 closed down 0.38% at 7337.11 points; The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 313.62 points (-0.63%) to 49596.97 points; The decline of the Nasdaq was relatively restrained, closing down only 0.13% at 25806.20 points. Among them, the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index fell 1.63%, becoming the main index with the largest daily decline.

The performance of the sectors showed differentiation, with all sectors closing down, with the energy sector experiencing the heaviest decline and essential consumer goods relatively resilient; The internal differentiation of the technology sector is obvious, with Tesla up 3.28%, Nvidia up 1.76%, Microsoft up 1.68%, Meta up 0.64%, while Apple and Alphabet fell slightly, Amazon fell 1.39%, and the overall composite index of the seven giants rose slightly by 0.69%, becoming one of the few bright spots in the technology sector on that day.

The semiconductor sector has become the hardest hit area, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closing down 2.72%, AMD down 3.07%, and TSMC ADR down 1.28%. Although Qualcomm and Fortinet's financial reports exceeded expectations, and Datadog's analyst day activity provided support for the software sector, the software index is expected to close higher for the fourth consecutive week, but it still cannot conceal the systemic selling pressure on the chip sector. According to data from Goldman Sachs trading platform, the high beta momentum portfolio fell as much as 8% on that day, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both fell less than 0.5%. This scissors gap has been among the top ten extreme values of a single day in the past five years, and has appeared five times since 2026, reflecting the extreme differentiation of market sentiment.

It is worth noting that the recent financial reports of leading US stock companies are highly representative, with the phenomenon of "exceeding expectations but encountering a sharp drop in stock prices". On May 6th, Arm Holdings released its Q4 FY2026 financial report after hours, with adjusted earnings per share and revenue slightly exceeding analysts' expectations. Authorized revenue increased by 29% year-on-year, and royalty revenue increased by 11%. However, during the earnings call, the management mentioned that the latest AGI CPU data center chips were facing a supply bottleneck, and the additional demand of $1 billion could not be temporarily realized as revenue, causing the stock price to soar by 13% after hours and then sell out in full. After opening on Thursday, it fell more than 10%, becoming one of the leading technology stocks with the heaviest decline that day. This is also the third time in the past year that Arm has experienced such a situation.

CoreWeave followed closely behind, with Q1 actual revenue exceeding expectations and revenue backorders expanding to $99 billion. Nvidia injected another $2 billion in the quarter, but due to Q2 revenue guidance being lower than market expectations and capital expenditures for the full year of 2026 being raised to $31-35 billion (doubling from $14.9 billion in 2025), the post market stock price fell by over 10% at one point. The core concern of the market is whether CoreWeave's huge pre orders and Nvidia's support can catch up with the growth rate of capital expenditures. Its real losses and debt pressure still make investors cautious.

###The Federal Reserve leans towards hawks, with non farm payroll data becoming the next key trigger point

At the policy level of the Federal Reserve, there was a slight hawkish shift in the short-term interest rate market on that day, and the probability of an unexpected interest rate hike before the end of the year increased to about 20%, but the market generally regarded this as short-term noise. From the perspective of labor data, the number of initial jobless claims for the week only slightly rebounded to 200000, lower than the market expectation of 206000. The job market is far from showing any substantial cracks, which also provides support for the Federal Reserve to maintain its hawkish stance.

As a result, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose by about 4.8 basis points to 4.393%, rising in sync with the rebound in oil prices; The offshore RMB rose above 6.80 at one point during trading, reaching a four-year high, but then fell slightly, closing at 6.8078 in New York; The US dollar index closed up 0.08% at 98.10.

The precious metal market is showing a volatile trend, with spot gold reaching a two-week high of over $4700 at one point, and rising 0.22% to $4701.61 per ounce at the end of the day. Inflation concerns caused by oil prices and safe haven demand under negotiation expectations are forming a tug of war, supporting gold to maintain its high level; Silver performed even stronger, with COMEX silver futures closing up 3.02% at $79.64 per ounce, and spot silver briefly breaking through $82 during trading.

European stock markets are under simultaneous pressure, with the European STOXX 600 falling 1.02%, the UK FTSE 100 falling 1.55%, the French CAC 40 falling 1.17%, and the German DAX falling 0.99%. Global risk assets are generally dragged down by the geopolitical situation.

Overall, the geopolitical variables in the Strait of Hormuz have not yet been clarified, and the stalemate in peace talks will continue to affect global market sentiment. The next key market trigger point will be the release of non farm payroll data on Friday - with the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 20% this year, the performance of labor market data will become the core basis for market repricing of Federal Reserve policies, and will further determine the short-term trends of assets such as US stocks and Bitcoin. For Bitcoin, whether the support level of 80000 yuan can be maintained depends not only on the continuous support of institutional funds, but also on the marginal improvement of global macro sentiment. The short-term market will still maintain a volatile pattern.