From cointelegraph by William Suberg

Bitcoin BTC$93,826 counts down to the end of 2024 trading in a crucial area for its latest bull run.

Bitcoin hovers near range lows — for now

After a flat weekend was punctured by fresh BTC price downside, Bitcoin is hovering near the lows of its December trading range, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

A lack of overall momentum has characterized the Christmas period, but as the last two Wall Street trading days of 2024 get underway, there are signs of short-term change.

“Price is currently trading around key VAL , last week's low & HTF trend,” popular trader Skew wrote in part of his latest post on X, referencing the value area low and weekly open.  

“Volatility is brewing imo.”

Skew suggested that the weekly open, which came in at around $93,550 on Bitstamp, would continue to play an important role for short-term price action.

BTC/USD meanwhile managed to fill some “inefficiencies” to the downside highlighted the day prior by fellow trader CrypNuevo.

“In terms of market efficiency, price should fill these imbalances (OI gaps) probably next week,” he predicted, showing target levels toward $93,500.

Areas of high liquidations could dictate further dips, he continued, with these currently around the $92,000 mark.

“Zones with high amounts of liquidations tend to act as magnets,” he told X followers. 

“Sometimes we can see reversals from these zones, so keep an eye on them.”

As Cointelegraph reported, BTC price downside expectations already favor a revisit of $90,000, with some seeing genuine odds of a considerably deeper correction next quarter.

“Old supports are acting as new resistance,” popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital warned in part of his own market observations prior to the weekly close.

“As a result, technically, the breakdown has been confirmed.”

Stagflation risks becoming “the theme of 2025”

Another quiet holiday week for US markets means that unemployment figures again form the key macroeconomic data print for the coming days.

Initial jobless claims are due on Jan. 2, marking the first significant macro numbers for risk assets of 2025. 

Against a background of “stagflation” cues, crypto continues to be sensitive to employment shocks.

While the Federal Reserve has one month to go until its next meeting on interest rates, markets continue to price out the likelihood of further rate cuts next year.

“Investors are worried that we will see a repeat of the 1970s inflation situation. The Fed is cutting rates due to a weaker labor market while inflation rebounds,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of an X thread on Dec. 29. 

“The beginning of stagflation is here and the Fed has yet to acknowledge it. We could see 4%+ inflation next year.”

An inflation rebound could significantly hurt crypto and risk-asset progress, while the “stagflation” scenario — rising inflation with rising unemployment — remains a headache after recent macro data.

Kobeissi said that it expects stagflation to become “the theme of 2025.”

“In fact, 55% of high net worth investors expect stagflation in 2025,” it concluded, referencing data from a survey by Bank of America (BoA). 

“Just 6 months ago, Fed Chair Powell said he's ‘not seeing the stag or the flation.’”

Seller exhaustion begins as metric nears 3-month lows

As Cointelegraph recently reported, despite the Bitcoin bull run taking a break at $108,000, the December BTC price downside remains modest.

The recent 15% dip is decidedly on the lower end of historical behavior when comparing bull market drawdowns to previous cycles.

Data from onchain analytics platform Glassnode puts the trip toward $90,000 in context.

After BTC/USD hit old all-time highs of $73,800 in March, Glassnode pointed to short-term holders (STHs) to identify when the market could bounce. 

It suggested that Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) metric, as well as realized losses, both played a part. 

“We now have a compass to uncover structures where the short-term holders potentially reach seller exhaustion,” it wrote in an edition of its weekly newsletter, “The Week Onchain,” published on April 30.

Originally created by ARK Invest, a metric comparing STH supply in profit to that in loss, which Glassnode says “detects local bottoms in bull markets and local tops in bear markets,” is now at its breakeven point.

The last time that Point-In-Time Short-Term Holder (STH) Profit/Loss Ratio saw levels below 1 was in early October when BTC/USD traded at $60,000.

Whales keep bullish hopes alive

Crypto markets may just have what it takes to end 2024 on a high — albeit not a new all-time high, research suggests.

In some of its latest market analysis on Dec. 28, research firm Santiment flagged whales as a potential source of “green” candles into the new year.

The reason, it said, was an absence of overall trading volume and apathy setting in among retail investors as short-term bullish momentum wanes.

“In the final days of 2024, trading volume is way down across crypto sectors,” it reported. 

“Overall, there has been -64% less trading in the past week compared to the previous week (which included Bitcoin's all-time high).”

Santiment said that whales conversely remain keen on adding market exposure, and if this continues, the results should be obvious.

“The trading downtrend of trading, particularly among speculative altcoins, is not a surprising development. With the holidays here and traders getting their year-end finances in order, the final week of December is often one of the least active times of each year,” it continued.

“With all of this said, if whales continue showing their strong accumulation trend, the lack of retail participation may actually lead to at least one final big unexpected 2024 pump while retail pays little attention.”

Binance stablecoin reserves point to market health

In a positive development amid a short-term crypto downturn, stablecoin reserves point the way to investor confidence.

Related: Bitcoin dips below $94K level, bears now in control?

In one of its Quicktake blog posts on Dec. 30, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant revealed that largest global exchange Binance had recently accumulated record stablecoin reserves.

On Dec. 11, Binance’s aggregate stablecoin reserves hit $31 billion, marking a near fivefold increase in eighteen months.

“With reserves remaining around the $30 billion level, it suggests that investors remain actively positioned in the market, potentially maintaining a strong buying pressure,” contributor Darkfost wrote in part of accompanying commentary.

Since then, the Binance reserve tally has dipped only modestly to around $29.7 billion as of Dec. 29, CryptoQuant shows.

High stablecoin levels among exchanges have traditionally been linked to crypto market upside, but the relationship is disputed. 

In November, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said that high reserves on their own were not apt to spark a BTC price bull run.

“Stablecoins alone can't provide enough buy-side liquidity for Bitcoin,” he told X followers, referencing the BTC to stablecoin reserve ratio metric.

Last week, Cointelegraph reported on various predictions for the stablecoin sector in 2025, including a $300 billion market cap.