The current rebound trend in the cryptocurrency market is still firmly controlled by Bitcoin (BTC). In the past two months, BTC has rebounded strongly from a low of $60000 by about 36%, and its market share has climbed to over 61%, setting a new high since November 2025. This data clearly sends a signal that although market sentiment has gradually recovered, the priority of capital inflows has always been towards BTC rather than altcoins. However, with positive changes in multiple indicators, the altcoin market has quietly shown early signs of recovery, and discussions about whether the "altcoin season is coming" have also heated up.

In fact, the signs of recovery for altcoins have gradually emerged in the market, but the climate has not yet formed. From the trading data, the proportion of trading volume for Binance's Shanzhai Coin has significantly increased from 31% in March to 49%, indicating a significant increase in market participation in cryptocurrency assets other than BTC and ETH; At the same time, the TOTAL3 index, which tracks the total market value of cryptocurrencies after excluding BTC and ETH, also rebounded to a two month high of $765 billion, up 17% from the previous low, confirming the overall market value recovery trend of altcoins.

At the price level, the performance of altcoins has also begun to improve. According to statistics, 12.6% of altcoins on Binance have re entered the 200 day simple moving average (SMA), which is usually seen as a signal of long-term asset trend improvement; In addition, the gap between the average price of altcoins and their 200 day SMA has narrowed to 23.47%, which is a significant improvement compared to earlier levels below 44.4% in this cycle. This reading is quite similar to the performance towards the end of the bear market in late 2022, indicating that altcoins have gradually emerged from their weakest stage.

Moreover, trading data from centralized exchanges (CEX) also point to positive signals of fund rotation. Market analysts pointed out that after excluding the top five cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, the trading volume of altcoins in CEX has continued to rise in the past few weeks, indicating that funds are slowly spreading from core assets to small and medium-sized altcoins. However, this rotation rhythm is still relatively mild and there has not been a trend of aggressive switching yet.

However, even so, we cannot assert that the "shanzhai season has arrived" - the core judgment basis is that the performance of key indicators has not yet reached the standards of the strong cycle of shanzhai coins. Among them, although the 90 day AltSeason Index has rebounded to 28.6, setting a record for the fastest recovery speed in several months, there is still a huge gap between it and the strong altcoin cycle threshold of 75 or above. The core function of this index is to measure whether the majority of altcoins outperform BTC during a specific period. The current reading of 28.6 means that altcoins as a whole are still in a state of "underperforming BTC" and have not yet formed a collective strong pattern.

Crypto analyst Darkfost has also made it clear that the current capital switch is still relatively mild, and there is still a significant gap compared to the aggressive rotation stage that occurred in the last round of altcoin market in 2024. Looking back at the historical trend, the peak of the AltSeason Index in the previous altcoin season occurred in early 2024. Even at that time, the value was relatively lower than the level of previous altcoin seasons, indicating that the current recovery of altcoins is still in a relatively conservative stage.

Overall, the current pattern of the cryptocurrency market is clear: BTC still dominates the market trend, and its 61% market share confirms the preference of funds for core assets; However, altcoins are not in a fully launched state, but have just emerged from their weakest stage and entered a period of recovery observation.

In the future, whether altcoins can truly usher in the "shanzhai season" depends on two core conditions: first, whether BTC can maintain its current stable trend and avoid a significant pullback - as a market indicator, the stability of BTC is a prerequisite for the spread of funds to altcoins. If BTC experiences severe fluctuations, funds are likely to flow back to core assets, squeezing the capital space of altcoins; Secondly, can the trading volume and market value of altcoins continue to recover? Only when the trading volume continues to increase and the market value steadily recovers, can a virtuous cycle be formed, driving the AltSeason Index to further climb and truly entering the strong cycle of altcoins.

For investors, it is not advisable to blindly follow the trend and layout altcoins at present. They need to maintain rational observation: on the one hand, pay attention to the stability of BTC's trend, and on the other hand, track the trading volume of altcoins, the number of 200 day SMA breakthroughs, and changes in AltSeason Index. Only when all indicators continue to improve and the pace of capital rotation accelerates, can the true arrival of the knockoff season be confirmed. Prior to this, it is still a safer choice to carefully layout and focus on core assets.