Against the backdrop of the current cryptocurrency bear market, HYPE is undoubtedly one of the most closely watched assets in the market. According to CoinGecko data, its price has recently stabilized at around $42, with an increase of about 8% and 16.8% in the past 7 and 30 days, respectively. Its market value is about $10.1 billion, and it has recorded an increase of about 60% in the overall bear market since the beginning of this year. It is widely regarded as the hottest cryptocurrency trading target of the year.

But under the current trend, a calm reverse view is worth being wary of: HYPE's upward potential has been significantly compressed, and it is extremely difficult to achieve a doubling from the current price. This is not to deny the value of the HYPE project itself, but to objectively judge its subsequent trend from multiple dimensions such as price structure, valuation logic, marginal buyers, and potential risks. When a cryptocurrency asset changes from an alpha target discovered by a few people to a popular project recognized by the public, the real question is no longer "whether it has a narrative", but "who will continue to buy at the current price".

This article does not involve emotional judgments, but only objectively dissects the core reasons why HYPE is difficult to double again, providing investors with a perspective to think beyond fanaticism.

###1、 Core constraint: 75% of unlocked tokens, hidden triple selling pressure risk

The current valuation and token circulation structure of HYPE are the primary obstacles to its sustained upward trend. As of now, HYPE's fully diluted valuation (FDV) is approximately $40 billion, but token circulation accounts for only 25% of the total supply, and the remaining 75% of tokens will continue to be unlocked until 2028- meaning that the market will continue to face selling pressure from token unlocking for a long time to come, with a potential selling pressure scale of about three times the current circulation.

If we want HYPE to double its current price again, we must face a reality: either the HYPE team will not sell the unlocked tokens at all, or the market needs marginal funds equivalent to 6 times the current buying order to bear the 3 times additional selling pressure. More importantly, by benchmarking HYPE against traditional exchanges, its current valuation is approaching or even touching the ceiling.

We can make a rational comparison through several comparable objects: CME, the world's largest derivatives trading market, with a historical highest market value of about 118 billion US dollars, which is three times the current FDV of HYPE; ICE's highest historical market value is approximately $107 billion, which is 2.5 times that of HYPE; The highest market value in Nasdaq's history is about $57 billion, which is 1.5 times the current FDV of HYPE. Keep in mind that CME has a 130 year regulatory moat, handling over $100 trillion in nominal trading volume annually, and its industry position and profitability are far beyond what current HYPE can match.

This means that if HYPE wants to double, its FDV will reach $80 billion, not only surpassing Nasdaq's historical high, but also approaching CME's valuation level - which is obviously too optimistic for a perpetual contract exchange that is still in a regulatory gray zone and has not been established for a long time.

###2、 Key question: Without marginal buyers, who will bear the subsequent upward trend?

The rise of encrypted assets essentially relies on the continuous entry of marginal funds. The current problem with HYPE is that after intense hype and concentrated KOL orders in the early stages, its consensus has been fully reached, and there are few potential marginal buyers left, and it is difficult to find sufficient incremental funds to support price doubling.

The buyers in the market are mainly divided into two categories: retail investors and institutions. We analyze them from these two dimensions:

From the perspective of individual investors, HYPE is no longer a 'secret target'. Nowadays, both experienced participants in the encryption industry and newcomers are almost aware of the popularity of HYPE, and the so-called "alpha opportunity" has long disappeared. There may still be a small number of wait-and-see retail investors outside the market, but the scale is limited and it is difficult to form a buying force that supports price doubling - after all, at the current price, the risk return ratio for retail investors entering the market has significantly decreased, and their willingness to blindly chase higher prices is generally weak.

From an institutional perspective, this was originally a key force that could have changed the situation, but the nature of HYPE makes it difficult to attract large-scale institutions to enter. Institutional buyers are mainly divided into two categories: traditional institutions such as Wall Street hedge funds and mutual funds, as well as cryptocurrency hedge funds.

For traditional institutions, the regulatory gray zone in which HYPE operates is the biggest obstacle. Its lack of KYC settings and regulatory arbitrage model, although advantageous for its rapid expansion, is clearly unacceptable for compliance focused donation funds and mutual funds. Even with PURR as a potential entry path, it depends on the institution's extremely high risk tolerance, making it difficult to form large-scale purchases in the short term. More importantly, traditional institutions do not benchmark HYPE against BNB in the cryptocurrency industry when valuing, but instead benchmark against traditional exchanges such as Nasdaq and CME. In their view, HYPE's current valuation is close to a reasonable range, and there is limited room for further upward movement.

For cryptocurrency hedge funds, rational fund managers may also choose to reduce their holdings when HYPE valuations are too high. When the FDV of HYPE reaches 80 billion dollars, the fund must consider the risk of valuation foam due to its fiduciary responsibility to LP (limited partner), and probably will reduce its position rather than continue to increase its position. Expecting a non compliant perpetual contract exchange with a valuation surpassing CME's century old history is not realistic in the eyes of LPs.

Overall, both individual investors and institutions are unable to provide the marginal buying power needed to support the doubling of HYPE - this is the core issue that makes it difficult for HYPE to rise again.

###3、 Potential risks: Multiple hidden dangers, further compressing the upward space

In addition to valuation and marginal buyer issues, HYPE also faces multiple potential risks that further weaken its chances of doubling and may even trigger a price correction.

Firstly, there is the risk of hacker attacks. The current cryptocurrency market is plagued by frequent hacker attacks, and HYPE, as a popular cryptocurrency asset and trading platform, is undoubtedly the "biggest honeypot" in the eyes of hackers. Whether it's well-known hacker organizations like Lazarus Group or potential AI hacking technologies in the future, once an attack is launched, it will have a devastating impact on the price of HYPE. For a trading platform that relies on user trust and fund security, the risk of hacker attacks is always a sword hanging over its head.

Secondly, there is a serious risk of dependence on key individuals. The key personnel risk of Hyperliquid (the project behind HYPE) belongs to the most serious category in the encryption circle. Jeff leads a team of only 11 people, adhering to the concept of product priority and not accepting VC investment. The core infrastructure of the platform, such as the matching engine, validator code, and execution logic, are all built internally and there are no publicly available backend knowledge transfer documents. Jeff is the only strategic and technical anchor for this agreement with a daily transaction volume exceeding $10 billion. He is an unnamed co-founder, has no visible succession plan, and lacks effective governance supervision. In the event of Jeff's accident or the departure of core team members, the operation of the entire project will face enormous uncertainty.

Finally, there is the risk of trader liquidity migration. Traders in the cryptocurrency market are essentially "mercenaries" who pursue short-term high returns. Once the upward potential of a certain target slows down, they quickly shift liquidity to the next target that may achieve a tenfold increase. In the encryption circle, the so-called "network effect" is not stable, and the current popularity of HYPE may be replaced by new popular targets at any time.

In addition, many people compare HYPE with BNB, believing that it can replicate BNB's upward path, but this comparison is not valid. On the one hand, BNB's tokens have been 100% unlocked and there is no new selling pressure, while HYPE only has a 24% circulation ratio, indicating huge selling pressure in the future; On the other hand, Binance will actively support BNB and turn it into an ecological core, while HYPE tends to develop in a laissez faire manner and lacks the motivation to actively raise prices. For HYPE, the real benchmark has never been BNB, but traditional exchanges such as CME and Nasdaq - which further highlights the irrationality of its current valuation.

###4、 Rational thinking: Under consensus, it is even more important to be vigilant about valuation overdrafts

In summary, HYPE is not a "bad project". On the contrary, it has demonstrated strong competitiveness in the cryptocurrency bear market and has enabled many investors to achieve profits. But the core of the problem is that the current price has already overdrawn its future growth space, and the high concentration of consensus has actually caused it to lose the motivation to continue rising.

For investors, it is advisable to calmly consider two questions:

If it is a long-term holding, why choose HYPE? It still has 76% of its tokens unlocked and will face triple net selling pressure in the future, requiring a large number of new buyers to maintain the current price; In contrast, Bitcoin (BTC), as the only digital gold, has achieved 100% circulation, no centralized control, and is irreplaceable, with a clearly better risk return ratio.

Why choose HYPE if you are pursuing a 10 fold increase? Its current FDV has reached $40 billion, with extremely high consensus and constantly emerging competition DEX. Each KOL is calling for their own position, and the upward space has been greatly compressed; In contrast, memecoins that have fallen more than 90% from their highs, possess the Lindy effect, strong meme properties, and sufficient volatility actually have a greater potential for upward movement.

What is more worth asking is: Will those KOLs who actively place orders for HYPE continue to buy at the current price? HYPE has enabled a group of people to achieve wealth appreciation, but after the frenzy, who will become their 'exit liquidity'?

Of course, this does not negate the possibility of short-term price spikes for HYPE in the future. When market sentiment is extremely high, its price may briefly exceed $80, but this is not a sustainable upward trend. In the long run, HYPE is likely to enter the platform phase below $80 and even face downward pressure.

The core value of this article is not to criticize HYPE, but to remind investors that when a cryptocurrency asset goes from alpha to a consensus, and when all the positive news has been digested by the market, the most important thing to be wary of is not "missing the rise", but "overvalued valuation" and "potential exit risks". In the cryptocurrency market, calm reverse thinking is often more effective in achieving long-term profits than following the trend.