Cointime

Cointime

Download App
iOS & Android

$13.6B in Bitcoin options expire Friday — Can bulls push BTC price to $100K?

Cointime Official

From cointelegraph by Marcel Pechman

Bitcoin is set for its largest monthly options expiry of 2024, with a total exposure of $13.6 billion.

Less than 2% of BTC put options target $100K or higher

This event provides bulls with a pivotal opportunity to push Bitcoin’s BTC$96,088 price above $100,000, making it crucial to assess the impact of call (buy) and put (sell) options set to expire on Nov. 29.

The S&P 500 has struggled to maintain levels above 6,000 over the past three weeks, signaling growing investor caution. This shift in sentiment is reflected in the United States five-year Treasury yield, which has declined from 4.35% on Nov. 15 to the current 4.12%.

Investors increasingly prioritize government bonds’ relative safety, even at lower returns.

S&P 500 futures (blue) vs. US 5-year Treasury yield (magenta). Source: TradingView/Cointelegraph

Periods of macroeconomic uncertainty, often driven by fears of an economic slowdown, typically trigger a flight to quality, prompting investors to exit riskier assets.

Still, the 5% rebound from Bitcoin’s $90,775 low on Nov. 26 suggests that confidence remains strong amid 34% gains over the last 30 days.

In a research note dated Nov. 27, economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics said that US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation could rise above 3% if President-elect Donald Trump implements import tariffs, according to Yahoo Finance. Separately, Barclays analysts remarked:

"Temporary and uncertain tariffs of this nature create natural incentives to delay investments."

From a broader perspective, Bitcoin call (buy) options for Nov. 29 hold an aggregate notional value of $7.4 billion on Deribit, CME, OKX, Binance and Bybit, surpassing the $6.2 billion in open interest for put (sell) options by 19%. This disparity is narrower than typical trends, as crypto traders often lean bullish.

Deribit Bitcoin Nov. 29 options open interest, BTC. Source: Deribit

Notably, only 20% of call options have strike prices at or above $100,000, representing $4.25 billion in notional value for the November expiry.

Related:  Buying Bitcoin in 2013 was like buying ‘gold in 1,000 BC’ — Pantera CEO

In contrast, less than 2% of put options target $100,000 or higher, effectively rendering most of them worthless and reducing their notional value to about $80 million.

Bitcoin call (buy) options favor bulls

Below are the four most probable scenarios for the Deribit exchange based on current price trends. The availability of call and put options for the Nov. 28 expiration will depend on Bitcoin’s settlement price at 8:00 am UTC.

This analysis assumes that call options are primarily used for bullish positions, while put options reflect neutral-to-bearish strategies. Still, it is crucial to note that this is a simplified approach and does not account for more advanced or complex trading strategies.

  • Between $86,000 and $90,000: The net outcome favors the call (buy) options by $1.65 billion.
  • Between $90,000 and $94,000: The net outcome favors the call (buy) options by $2.6 billion.
  • Between $94,000 and $98,000: The net outcome favors the call (buy) options by $3.55 billion.
  • Between $98,000 and $102,000: The net result favors the call (buy) options by $4.58 billion.

So, the bears face substantial pressure to drive Bitcoin’s price below $90,000 before the November options expiry to prevent call options from prevailing.

However, Bitcoin’s resilience amid inflation concerns suggests that prices could reach $100,000 or higher soon after these BTC options expire.

Comments

All Comments

Recommended for you

  • Amin Haqshanas ·

    Bitcoin miner Core Scientific shifts to AI with 1.5GW data center push

    Core Scientific is converting its Pecos, Texas site into a high-density AI colocation hub, repurposing 300MW of mining capacity.

    Bitcoin miner Core Scientific shifts to AI with 1.5GW data center push
  • Brian Morrissey ·

    Acting AG Todd Blanche confirms ‘code is not a crime’ in DOJ pivot

    Acting US Attorney General Todd Blanche said developers will no longer be investigated or charged unless they knowingly help third parties commit crimes.

    Acting AG Todd Blanche confirms ‘code is not a crime’ in DOJ pivot

  • Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: No Immediate Need for Rate Hike

    On April 28, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that there is currently no immediate need to raise interest rates. However, if the current supply shocks lead to secondary ripple effects, a rate hike may be necessary. (Jin Shi)

  • Central Political Bureau Meeting: Comprehensive Implementation of 'AI+' Initiative to Develop New Intelligent Economy and Improve AI Governance

    On April 28, the Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work. The meeting emphasized the need to accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system and maintain a reasonable proportion of manufacturing. It called for deepening the construction of a unified national market and addressing 'involutionary' competition. The meeting also announced the comprehensive implementation of the 'AI+' initiative to develop a new intelligent economy and improve AI governance. Furthermore, it highlighted the need to deepen state-owned enterprise reform, systematically respond to external shocks and challenges, enhance the security of energy and resource guarantees, and address various uncertainties with the certainty of high-quality development. (Dongxin News Agency)

  • ByteDance, Zhiyu, and Alibaba Selected Among Top 10 AI Influencers by TIME

    On April 28, TIME announced its list of the '10 Most Influential AI Companies of 2026.' Unlike a simple comparison of model capabilities, this list emphasizes the comprehensive shaping power of companies in terms of industry, technological pathways, and social impact. The selected companies include ByteDance, Amazon, Zhiyu, OpenAI, Alphabet, Meta, Anthropic, Alibaba, Mistral, and Hugging Face. Among them, three are domestic companies: ByteDance, Zhiyu, and Alibaba. (Dongxin News Agency)

  • cointime子凡 ·

    a16z assessment: Stablecoins have become the underlying infrastructure of global finance.

    a16z assessment: Stablecoins have become the underlying infrastructure of global finance.

  • Arthur Hayes: More Concerned About Fed Nominee Waller's Comments on Balance Sheet Than Short-Term Interest Rates

    On April 28, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes spoke about the Federal Reserve at the Bitcoin 2026 conference, stating, "When Kevin Waller was nominated as the Fed's SEC chairman, everyone started to panic because during his tenure as a Fed governor— I believe from the 2008 financial crisis until the current president— he has been very critical of the Fed's massive balance sheet. He has publicly stated that he believes the Fed's balance sheet is too large and that he needs to find ways to shrink it while also being able to lower interest rates. Now, if you have read my articles, you know that I am a firm advocate of the idea that the quantity of money is more important than its price. Therefore, I am more concerned about his comments on the balance sheet than the direction of short-term interest rates. So, if the market believes that due to Waller's actions at the Fed, the liquidity of dollars circulating in the system will decrease, then they will be bearish on Bitcoin and other risk assets. This is the discussion we see in the media about a hawkish Fed emerging after Waller takes over in May. Now, I don't think so. I believe that essentially the Fed will replace reserves, treasury bonds, and repos and put them into the commercial banking system, and they will do this with the help of new regulations concerning how banks hold assets on their balance sheets and how much capital they need to hold against those assets. Finally, I think the most important point to understand about what Waller will or will not do at the Fed is that he has a very substantial hard constraint, which is that he needs to work with Treasury's Scott Bessen to ensure that any actions he takes regarding the Fed's balance sheet do not impair Bessen's ability to sell billions and trillions of dollars in bonds.

  • SEC Chair: Reg GG Crypto to Allow Private Sector Token Sales Soon

    On April 28, U.S. SEC Chair Gary Gensler stated in an interview at the Bitcoin 2026 conference that the agency will continue to advance other exciting initiatives, such as truly allowing companies to conduct on-chain experiments, build tokenized securities, and trade on-chain within the United States. We plan to release innovative exemption regulations in the coming weeks. Additionally, we will permit the private sector to raise funds through on-chain token sales, which we refer to as 'Reg GG Crypto.' These initiatives are in preparation and will be launched soon. Currently, there is a bill titled the 'Clarity Act' under consideration in Congress. We do need Congress to provide regulations in this area. We are ready, willing, and able to explain their regulations and translate them into rules that people can rely on and pursue their innovative ideas. It is important to emphasize that this is happening domestically in the U.S., so they do not have to go overseas. This is the core idea that truly matters here.

  • SEC Chair Discusses Clarity Act: Codified Law Provides Greater Assurance for the Future

    On April 28, during the Bitcoin 2026 Conference, SEC Chair Gary Gensler spoke about the Clarity Act, stating that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has considerable operational flexibility under the regulations. However, we are constrained by existing authorities, which, despite some amendments over the years, fundamentally remain rooted in the framework established in the 1930s. This is why having a piece of legislation is so important; it can shield future developments from adverse impacts, allowing us to leverage new authorities and the flexibility provided by the Act. We can collaborate with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to coordinate and clarify definitions, and further develop from there. But again, nothing provides greater assurance for the future than codified law, coupled with sound judicial opinions that engrave the provisions of the law in stone through the mechanisms of the entire court system. Therefore, all of this is very important, but we are focused on efforts to simplify processes, enhance efficiency, and assist innovators in their endeavors, enabling them to operate with certainty rather than being stifled by those who jealously guard the existing ways of doing things. However, we must ensure that we remain at the forefront of innovation in the United States.

  • Meta Prepares to Withdraw Acquisition of Manus; Investors Including Tencent Plan to Cooperate

    On April 28, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing informed sources, that after the Office of Foreign Investment Security Review under China's National Development and Reform Commission made a legal decision to prohibit foreign investment in the Manus project, Meta is preparing to withdraw from the acquisition deal. According to sources, if Meta proceeds with the withdrawal process, several former Asian investors in Manus, including Tencent, Sequoia China, and ZhenFund, have planned to cooperate.

Daily Must-Read

Popular Activities

RaveDAO at Terra Solis by Tomorrowland: A Female-Led Techno Night Where Web3 Culture Converges

RaveDAO at Terra Solis by Tomorrowland: A Female-Led Techno Night Where Web3 Culture Converges

April 30 - April 30
Dubai

Popular Tags

Cointime
News
Contents
RSS
Company