On April 28, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes spoke about the Federal Reserve at the Bitcoin 2026 conference, stating, "When Kevin Waller was nominated as the Fed's SEC chairman, everyone started to panic because during his tenure as a Fed governor— I believe from the 2008 financial crisis until the current president— he has been very critical of the Fed's massive balance sheet. He has publicly stated that he believes the Fed's balance sheet is too large and that he needs to find ways to shrink it while also being able to lower interest rates. Now, if you have read my articles, you know that I am a firm advocate of the idea that the quantity of money is more important than its price. Therefore, I am more concerned about his comments on the balance sheet than the direction of short-term interest rates. So, if the market believes that due to Waller's actions at the Fed, the liquidity of dollars circulating in the system will decrease, then they will be bearish on Bitcoin and other risk assets. This is the discussion we see in the media about a hawkish Fed emerging after Waller takes over in May. Now, I don't think so. I believe that essentially the Fed will replace reserves, treasury bonds, and repos and put them into the commercial banking system, and they will do this with the help of new regulations concerning how banks hold assets on their balance sheets and how much capital they need to hold against those assets. Finally, I think the most important point to understand about what Waller will or will not do at the Fed is that he has a very substantial hard constraint, which is that he needs to work with Treasury's Scott Bessen to ensure that any actions he takes regarding the Fed's balance sheet do not impair Bessen's ability to sell billions and trillions of dollars in bonds.
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