On March 30, Zhang Chi, former Chief Strategist at Guojin Securities, published a statement saying that many investors feel that the current 'US-Iran War' is similar to the 'Russia-Ukraine War.' In reality, the comparability is quite low, especially in terms of the global energy landscape and economic impact, which differ significantly. The 'Russia-Ukraine War' can at most be considered a geopolitical issue related to energy, corresponding to a localized reduction in supply. Moreover, Russia has exited the US SWIFT system but continues to sell oil, so the impact is localized and temporary. However, the core of the 'US-Iran War' is the Strait of Hormuz, where the impact on energy supply extends beyond Iran to the entire Gulf region, which holds nearly 50% of energy reserves and accounts for over one-third of energy output. I want to reiterate that the logic behind the evolution of the 'US-Iran War' is not merely about 'the exchange of national interests,' but also involves 'religious conflicts.' Therefore, there are risks of a prolonged war, a war of attrition, and escalation. The 'Strait of Hormuz' is the 'trump card' in Iran's hands, and it will not easily relinquish control—losing control of the 'Strait of Hormuz' would mean losing the war! This is the basis for my assertion that we are gradually seeing the emergence of a 'Fourth Oil Crisis' under the current 'prolonged war.' Zhang Chi defines this Fourth Oil Crisis as the 'US-Iran prolonged war' and the 'long-term blockade of the Strait of Hormuz,' which would keep oil prices high for an extended period—this assumption is crucial as it will directly determine the extent of its impact on future global inflation, economic conditions, and asset prices. Comparing the oil crises of 1973 and 1978, the structural changes in energy supply led to prolonged periods of high oil prices, lasting even 2 to 3 years; whereas the energy price increases during the '1990 Gulf War' and '2003 Iraq War' did not exceed 6 months. Clearly, whether this 'US-Iran War' can bring about a 'qualitative change' in global inflation, economic conditions, and asset prices will depend on whether the period of high oil prices is sufficiently long. My judgment is that there is indeed such a risk.