on January 9, VanEck released the "Bitcoin Long-Term Market Hypothesis" report discussing investment deployment in 2026, stating that VanEck focuses on two indicators: the Relative Unrealized Profit (RUP) indicator and the contract financing rate. According to historical data, when the 30-day moving average RUP exceeds 0.70, a tactical cycle top is imminent, while Bitcoin's current relative unrealized profit is 0.43, still within the range that historically brings the best 1-2 year returns, indicating that we are in the mid-cycle. At the same time, a perpetual contract financing rate consistently above 10% usually indicates overly optimistic market sentiment, which often signals the arrival of a cycle top. The current perpetual contract financing rate of about 4.9% also indicates that the market still has room to rise further.