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US Federal Reserve Raises Interest Rates, Signals Optionality for Further Hikes, but Markets Price in a September Cut

The US Federal Reserve has increased interest rates by 25 basis points, reaching their highest level in 22 years at 5.25-5.5%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the Fed may hike interest rates further depending on incoming US economic data. However, most analysts believe that this was the last interest hike of this tightening cycle, and the Fed will pause for the rest of the year.

Despite the Fed's bias towards more hikes, US money markets predict a strong likelihood of a 25bps interest rate cut back to 5.0-5.25% in September, causing US yields and the US Dollar Index to slip. Crypto prices were choppy but are currently higher than their pre-Fed policy announcement levels, with Bitcoin trading around $29,500.

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