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QCP: In the absence of specific catalysts, the trend of cryptocurrencies is more driven by macroeconomic factors

On February 17th, QCP released a daily report stating that as the market continues to consolidate sideways, BTC's market dominance has risen to about 60%, close to a four-year high, while ETH and other altcoins continue to perform poorly. The LIBRA scandal that occurred last weekend, involving Argentine President Mile, is not a good sign for similar projects or those expecting a season of altcoins/Meme coins. With BTC stabilizing back to the middle of the range, implied volatility continues to decline, which is not surprising as the 7-day actual volatility has decreased. In the absence of significant cryptocurrency-specific catalysts, price movements seem to be more driven by macroeconomic factors, especially the stable correlation between BTC and the US stock market. However, it is worth noting that despite facing macro uncertainty (tariffs, debt ceiling, inflation, etc.) and Trump's unpredictability, cryptocurrency implied volatility and VIX are still trading at low levels. BTC's impact on recent macro data is relatively unaffected, and open interest (OI) has not significantly recovered since the end of January. This indicates that the cryptocurrency options market is waiting off-exchange for specific policy changes, not just supportive rhetoric for cryptocurrencies. The current volatility levels are similar to those in Q2-Q3 of last year, when BTC faced difficulties in breaking through multiple months' ranges. On the contrary, most of the fund flows are concentrated in short-term options selling or attempting to trade within the range, rather than positioning for a significant breakthrough.

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