according to the latest weekly report from Matrix on Target, although the price of Bitcoin has continued to trade sideways in a narrow range, multiple technical indicators and market data suggest that it may soon break through the key trend line resistance and move towards a new trading range.

The report points out that Bitcoin ETFs have attracted approximately $14 billion in inflows since April, exceeding the $4 billion that can be explained by spot prices, indicating an increase in institutional investors' recognition of Bitcoin as a long-term asset allocation. At the same time, Bitcoin volatility has dropped to multi-year lows, with weekly implied volatility remaining at around 30%, reducing the entry threshold for institutional funds.

In terms of seasonal performance, July has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin, with seven out of the past ten years seeing an increase, with an average increase of 9.1%. Analysts expect that, supported by external factors such as the Fed's shift to a moderate policy and positive earnings reports from US stocks, this round of rebound may challenge the $116,000 resistance level, and in an optimistic scenario, extend to $120,000.

It is worth noting that the current capital efficiency in the crypto market is continuing to decline, with total inflows expected to be lower in 2025 than the peak in 2024. This means that the density of funds needed to sustain the upward trend in Bitcoin prices is significantly increasing, with each $1 invested only able to leverage approximately $2.0 to $2.6 in market value.