On April 13, a report from CICC stated that as the short-term factors boosting the dollar fade, the narrative of restructuring the global monetary order and the weakening of dollar hegemony may once again dominate market direction: the U.S. continues to accumulate net external liabilities, which strengthens the demand for dollar depreciation; the high uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies has not alleviated the risks of 'weaponizing' the dollar, which is also suppressing market demand for U.S. assets. If the new Federal Reserve Chair, Waller, can implement the 'balance sheet reduction' policy, it could objectively help restore the credibility of the dollar. However, Waller's policies are constrained by the capacity of the real economy and financial markets, as well as political factors, and Trump's foreign, trade, and economic policies continue to negatively impact the dollar's credibility. Considering the overall impact of Waller's and Trump's policies, we cannot conclude that the credibility of the dollar will improve in the future. We expect the global monetary order to continue restructuring, driving the dollar to maintain a long-term depreciation trend. (Jin Shi)
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