On April 1, Goldman Sachs analysts noted in a report that since the outbreak of the Iraq War, the market pricing of the U.S. federal funds rate has experienced significant fluctuations, but the likelihood of a rate hike this year remains low. The analysts stated that the current supply shock is relatively small and more limited compared to past shocks that triggered inflation issues, with oil price increases also being less than those seen in the 1970s. Furthermore, they believe that 'the starting point of the economy makes the likelihood of widespread inflation spillover low,' and the current monetary policy stance has also reduced the probability of rate hikes. The analysts emphasized, 'The Federal Reserve typically does not tighten policy solely in response to oil shocks.' (Jinshi)