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Global Central Banks on Alert for Inflation Rebound; Dollar Drops Over 1%

On March 20th, non-US currencies strengthened across the board, with the US dollar index falling over 1% by Thursday's New York close under pressure. This week marked a rare "super central bank week" with policy meetings held by the central banks of the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, Canada, and the Eurozone, alongside several emerging economies. On Wednesday, both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada decided to keep interest rates unchanged. On Thursday, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the central banks of Switzerland and Sweden made similar decisions. These central banks explicitly stated they would remain vigilant, concerned that rising energy prices could trigger a wave of inflation across broader economic sectors. Even the Central Bank of Brazil, which has the highest interest rate among major economies, opted for a modest 25 basis point cut to its benchmark rate, bringing it to 14.75%, falling short of market expectations for a 50 basis point reduction. "The escalation in Iran seems to be a turning point for the market, as the conflict is no longer just about military headlines or the Strait of Hormuz blockade," said Haru Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo Bank in Singapore. "It is now hitting the jugular of the global energy system. What is unsettling the market right now is the increasing risk of stagflation."

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