Cryptoquant analyst Carmelo_Alemán released a market analysis stating that on-chain analysis uses indicators such as MVRV, UTXO value bands, and exchange platform reserves to interpret blockchain data from micro and macro perspectives. These tools help us understand on-chain dynamics and guide wise decision-making. However, this method of constantly seeking micro signals to infer macro trends, while often useful, can sometimes obscure the cyclical forces that truly drive long-term price behavior in Bitcoin.

The "Bitcoin Annual Percentage Trend" corrects this issue by showing Bitcoin's annual performance since 2011, revealing a regular cycle: three years of growth followed by one year of consolidation, matching the halving rhythm of Bitcoin every four years. The significance of this growth cycle is that, according to this indicator, if Bitcoin maintains the typical speed of the third year of the cycle, it could grow by about 120% in 2025. Starting from $93,226 to reach $205,097, this could potentially be the peak of the cycle for this year.

If this logic holds, 2025 is likely to close with a third consecutive bullish year, completing another positive cycle. This signals that we are in the final stage of the current cycle, which is strategically important for investors looking to align with the long-term structure of Bitcoin. This behavior is also supported by other cyclical indicators (such as realized market value, Realized Cap), which are expected to reach historical highs in 2025. Using the long-term perspective of the "Bitcoin Annual Percentage Trend" helps investors stay calm during short-term fluctuations.