On March 19th, the European Central Bank will release its latest quarterly growth and inflation forecasts on Thursday. While these forecasts will not fully reflect the impact of the war in Ukraine on energy prices, more importantly, the bank is expected to present scenarios outlining how the economy might evolve depending on whether the conflict ends quickly or continues. Economists at Barclays Bank stated that the ECB would raise interest rates if Brent crude oil prices stabilize at $100 per barrel (roughly the current level) and natural gas prices stabilize at €70 per megawatt-hour (about €15 higher than Wednesday). They wrote in a report: "Overall and core inflation could rise to such an extent that the prospect of exceeding the ECB's target in the medium term becomes large and persistent, leading to a hike in policy rates later this year. However, the macroeconomic and monetary outlook will also depend on the fiscal response to this crisis." (JIN10)