On March 20, Bank of America stated that the market has largely ruled out the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut—investors are now focused on what factors might trigger a rate hike instead. The bank outlined three key conditions: a stable labor market, Jerome Powell continuing as chairman, and a sustained but moderate oil shock triggered by Iran. If oil prices remain in the range of $80 to $100, the likelihood of a rate hike will significantly increase. Persistent inflation and rising energy prices are putting pressure on the Fed, making the case for a rate cut difficult to justify. Powell has adopted a hawkish stance, emphasizing inflation risks and the uncertainties surrounding the Iran conflict. In short: if the oil shock continues, the Fed may shift back to a tightening policy.