Bitcoin has been weakening for a month, retreating after being blocked near $83,000, and is currently moving towards a decline in May, which the market views as a classic seasonal signal of 'May sell-off' re-emerging. Historical data shows that Bitcoin's average return one month after a 'red May' is approximately -10%, and about -3.3% over three months, with short-term trends typically continuing to weaken; based on historical averages, the price could fall to around the $68,200 range. Analysis indicates that 'red May' in a bear market structure is often more destructive; however, Bitcoin's average increase over the six months following 'red May' can reach about +139%, and even after excluding anomalous years, it remains around +12.9%, indicating that the long-term trend has not been disrupted by seasonal signals.