US dollar has resumed its rise triggered by the Middle East conflict, with inflation concerns intensifying market worries that US interest rates will remain high for a longer period. Due to fuel supply disruptions and shipping route closures, gas-powered aluminum plants in the Middle East have suspended production and delivery. This further exacerbates the inflation pressure caused by the energy supply shock. The Federal Reserve Watch tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange shows that the probability of only one rate cut this year is currently 36.2%, compared to 22% a week ago.
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Aluminum supply disruptions coupled with energy shocks and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut boosted the US dollar.
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