Key points:
- Bitcoin is approaching its bull market top, and even corporate buyers may not survive the plunge, Saifedean Ammous warned.
- BTC price action is still capable of an 80% drawdown, said the author of “The Bitcoin Standard.”
- Bitcoin OGs are increasingly warning about the potential lack of attention given to bear markets.
Bitcoin
BTC$105,701is approaching “very shaky ground” as it prepares its next blow-off top, celebrated author and educator Saifedean Ammous said.
Speaking on the Coin Stories podcast on June 3, “The Bitcoin Standard” author warned that the bull market was coming to an end.
Bitcoin bull market gains “not inconsiderable”
Bitcoin has limited time before its next bear market despite institutional involvement and changing market structure, Ammous said.
Discussing phenomena such as institutional buyers and corporate treasuries, he stressed that regardless of market maturity, BTC/USD could still crash by up to 80% during its comedown from bull market peaks.
“I just hope my message out there to everybody in this business is, Bitcoin has done -70% and -80% before, and it can do it again,” he told Coin Stories host Natalie Brunell.
“If your business model can’t handle a -80% Bitcoin drawdown, rework your business model right now, because I think we’re getting toward the very shaky ground of the top and the fall from it.”
Ammous explained that in prior price cycles, the long-term top appeared “between one year and 18 months” after the last block subsidy halving event.
While accepting that BTC/USD could still hit $200,000 or more this cycle, he acknowledged that current trough-to-peak gains sit at over 600%.
“Since the bottom, we’re up from $15,000 to $109,000; that’s not inconsiderable,” he continued.
BTC corporate treasuries get grilled
His comments come as more and more corporations choose to add Bitcoin to their balance sheets.
The trend has expanded outside the US, with Paris-based cryptocurrency company Blockchain Group acquiring another $68 million worth of Bitcoin this week to bring its total holdings to nearly 1,500 BTC.
Echoing Ammous, Bitcoin commentator Max Keiser shared doubts over the ability of industry newcomers to withstand the kind of price volatility common to all Bitcoin bear markets.
“The Strategy clones have not been tested in a bear market. Saylor never sold and just kept buying, even when his BTC position was underwater,” he wrote on X about the acquisition policy of Strategy, the firm with the world’s largest Bitcoin treasury.
“It is foolish to think the new Bitcoin Treasury Strategy clones will have the same discipline.”
BTC price forecasts, meanwhile, continue to vary, with $200,000 and higher still a popular target for 2025.
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