Bitcoin has established a new resistance around $116,000, which is unlikely to change until the cryptocurrency gains renewed momentum, Bitfinex analysts say.

However, two potential catalysts on the horizon could help bolster the price of Bitcoin .

“BTC now trades at the upper edge of the range near $116,000, which remains resistance until decisively reclaimed,” Bitfinex said in a report on Tuesday. 

The report added that since Bitcoin’s momentum has faded since it hit an all-time high of $124,100 on Aug. 14, and its price has been pulled below the cost basis of recent buyers who entered during the top, in the $108,000 to $116,000 range.

Bitcoin is trading at $116,370 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap.

The slight rebound over the past seven days comes as the US Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, with market participants assigning a 96.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. 

Analysts divided over Fed reaction

Market participants have been divided over how Bitcoin’s price will react if the Fed does announce a rate cut. Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee cited the Fed reducing rates for the first time this year as a potential catalyst for Bitcoin and Ether making “a monster move in the next three months.” 

However, others are more skeptical about how it will unfold. Crypto analyst Ted said he is confident the Fed will cut rates, but outlined in an X post on Tuesday that Bitcoin could drop to $104,000 before reversing, or fall to $92,000 before rebounding to a new all-time high.

The Fed cutting interest rates is typically bullish for risk-on assets, as traditional investments like bonds and term deposits become less appealing to investors. 

However, analysts often caution that prices may still decline after such bullish events if the market has already priced in the possibility.

Overall, crypto market sentiment is divided among participants, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index posting a “Neutral” score of 53 on Wednesday.

Q4 could serve as bullish catalyst for crypto

Another catalyst market participant is eyeing Oct. 1, which marks the start of the fourth quarter of 2025, historically Bitcoin’s best-performing quarter, with an average return of 85.42% since 2013, according to CoinGlass.

Meanwhile, Bitfinex analysts said that long-term holder confidence is still strong, as the recent sell-off, which saw Bitcoin down to $107,400 on Sept. 1, was largely driven by investors who bought within the past six months.

“This dynamic suggests that investors who accumulated during the February – May correction used the recent bounce as an opportunity to exit profitably, creating meaningful headwinds for further upside momentum,” the analysts said.