A recent statement by Strategy has completely stirred up the calm in the cryptocurrency market - after the release of its first quarter financial report in 2026, its founder Michael Saylor changed his firm stance of "never selling coins" in the past few years and publicly stated that "he may sell some Bitcoin to pay dividends and inject a shot in the arm into the market"; CEO Phong Le bluntly stated, 'When selling coins is beneficial to the company, we will sell them.'. As soon as this reversal statement was made, MSTR fell more than 4% after the market closed, and Bitcoin also fell below $81000. A core question once again appeared in front of the market: if this world's largest enterprise Bitcoin holder really starts selling coins, will the cryptocurrency market plummet?

Let's first look at the core background behind the financial report: Strategy's net loss for the first quarter of 2026 reached $12.54 billion, mainly due to unrealized losses caused by the decline in Bitcoin prices. As of now, Strategy holds 818334 bitcoins with an average cost of approximately $75537 and a total value of approximately $66.7 billion, accounting for 4% of the global bitcoin circulation. As a leading position holder in the cryptocurrency market, every move it makes affects the market's nerves. The shift from "never selling coins" to "not excluding selling coins" completely breaks the market's long-standing consensus.

As for why Saylor chose to turn around at this time, there are two completely different interpretations of long and short in the market, which directly determine different expectations for the subsequent market trend. A long short tug of war around the "truth of selling coins" has already begun.

From a bullish perspective, the recent coin selling remarks seem more like a strategic move of "preemptive strike", with the core purpose of dispelling the market's long-term doubts about Strategy's cash flow and confronting bearish investors. It is reported that Strategy needs to pay an annual dividend of 11.5% on STRC preferred shares, with an annual total of approximately $1.5 billion. However, the company's software business revenue is almost negligible, and Bitcoin holdings themselves do not generate any cash flow. This has led to long-term market concerns: Strategy will eventually be forced to pay dividends by continuously issuing MSTR common shares in exchange for cash, and the crazy stock issuance will dilute existing shareholder equity, crush stock prices, and trigger a chain reaction.

Saylor's statement is aimed at breaking this expectation. He made it clear during the earnings conference call that if bearish investors believe that the company must sell stocks in order to pay dividends, he is most willing to do so with a "face slapping" attitude. At the same time, he revealed that currently Strategy only needs Bitcoin to rise by 2.3% annually, and existing holdings can indefinitely cover all dividend obligations of STRC without the need to sell common stocks - this threshold for increase is far lower than the average annual increase in Bitcoin history (over 20%), and there is almost no actual pressure.

Bernstein, an institution, also echoes this perspective. Its analyst Gautam Chhugani stated in a report at the end of April that "the best days for cryptocurrency are still ahead" and pointed out that STRC, as a "high-yield, low volatility" tool, is introducing and circulating funds that pursue returns into more Bitcoin purchases. Its mechanism itself is the core engine of Bitcoin's next round of rise, even more critical than the inflow of spot ETFs.

In addition, bulls believe that this statement is also an active market stress test. If Strategy always regards "selling coins" as taboo and never tests market reactions, once forced to sell urgently in the future, the market will experience even more panicked fluctuations due to a lack of "practice"; Now actively releasing the "sell coin option" is equivalent to dismantling the "time bomb" hanging over the market. If the market accepts this narrative, the market may even strengthen due to the "elimination of uncertainty". From this perspective, Saylor's so-called "selling coins" is likely to be a small-scale, symbolic, and planned operation, rather than a panic shipment.

But the bearish perspective is completely opposite, even pointing directly at the existence of "Ponzi characteristics" in Strategy's capital structure. Economist Peter Schiff referred to Strategy's model as "Bitcoin Ponzi" as early as March. He believes that STRC, as Strategy's main financing tool, is designed as a preferred stock with a stable stock price around $100 face value and an annualized dividend of 11.5%. Its core function is to attract conservative institutional funds, which can then be used to purchase Bitcoin.

Peter Schiff's core question is that the funding source for Strategy's dividend payments is fundamentally unsustainable: software business revenue can be ignored, Bitcoin has no cash flow, so dividends can only rely on issuing new STRC financing - using the money of new investors to pay dividends to old investors, which is a typical feature of the Ponzi structure. He pointed out that the dividend yield of STRC has increased from 9% when it was issued in July last year to 11.5%. Essentially, during a market downturn, Strategy was forced to raise dividends to support the price of STRC. The annual dividend bill of $1.5 billion will continue to expand with the issuance of a new round of STRC.

At present, Strategy's cash reserves are about 2.25 billion US dollars, which can only support 18 months of dividend payments. Once the cash is exhausted, Saylor has only two options: either declare a dividend default, directly destroy STRC's credit, and trigger a market crash; Either liquidate Bitcoin for cash, and the current discourse is a signal of the latter option. The Financial Times even used the term "Jenga" to metaphorically describe the STRC flywheel, likening it to MBS before the 2008 financial crisis. It believes that its "seemingly safe" appearance essentially relies on the continuous rise of Bitcoin prices, and once the rise stops, the entire structure will collapse.

What is even more alarming is an overlooked legal detail: although STRC is marketed as "over collateralized by Bitcoin," it is legally considered an unsecured security and has no priority claim against Strategy's Bitcoin holdings. If Strategy enters liquidation proceedings, STRC holders will need to be ranked after the $8.2 billion convertible bonds and $1.3 billion STRF preferred shares, and only when the $9.5 billion claim rights are satisfied can it be the turn of STRC holders. Vetle Lunde, the head of K33 research, also warned that STRC holders face an asymmetric structure of "dividend capped upside and real downside risk". If they fall below face value for a long time, their risk will be more inclined towards credit risk rather than stable returns.

Bears believe that Saylor's statement of "giving the market a shot in the arm" is actually the first signal that the Ponzi structure cannot sustain itself. Once the market agrees with this logic, Strategy will lose its "flywheel ability" to buy coins through issuing stocks and ultimately be forced into a true coin selling cycle. And once it transforms from a "big buyer" to a "big seller" holding 4% of the global Bitcoin circulation, the impact on Bitcoin prices will be unprecedented in the current market.

The market's dilemma is also reflected intuitively in the data. According to Polymarket data, prior to the release of Strategy's first quarter financial report, the probability of the market betting on "selling any Bitcoin within Strategy 2026" was only about 10%; As soon as Saylor's statement about selling coins was made, the probability skyrocketed to 48% in an instant. At the same time, the probability of the market betting on "Bitcoin reaching $100000 by the end of the year" is 42%, while the probability of "falling back to $55000 before the end of the year" is as high as 55%, clearly facing a dilemma between "strong rebound" and "exploring deeper waters".

So, if Strategy really sells coins, will the cryptocurrency market plummet? The answer is not absolute, the core depends on the scale and pace of coin sales, as well as the transmission of market sentiment.

From the perspective of book impact, if Strategy only sells Bitcoin corresponding to its dividend obligation scale (approximately $1.5 billion per year), this scale is relatively small compared to its frequent Bitcoin purchases in the past. Moreover, if a "small and predictable" approach is adopted, the market is likely to be able to digest it, and the downward impact on prices is limited.

But the emotional impact cannot be ignored. In the past six years, Strategy has become a representative of the belief in the cryptocurrency market that "never sells coins". Its holdings of Bitcoin are seen as "permanently out of circulation", which is also one of the core supports of the Bitcoin bull story - "the largest institutional holder guarantees not to sell", which is an implicit prerequisite for the market's structural bullish trend. When this premise disappears, the market must re quantify the variable of 'Strategy becoming a seller', and emotional panic may trigger short-term selling.

The deeper risk lies in the fact that Strategy's model has spawned over 100 publicly traded companies (DAT) that have replicated its model, and currently about 40% of these companies are valued below the actual value of their Bitcoin holdings. If even industry leader Strategy starts selling coins, those small DATs whose net asset value (mNAV) has already fallen below 1 and cannot continue to raise funds through stock issuance have almost no reason not to follow suit and sell coins. Once there is a chain selling pressure of collective deleveraging by DAT companies, it may truly trigger a downturn in the entire cryptocurrency market.

Ultimately, the impact of Strategy's coin selling rhetoric has already surpassed its own operations and become a collision between the beliefs and reality of the cryptocurrency market. Whether it is the "strategic breakout" in the eyes of bulls or the "Ponzi warning" in the mouths of bears, the actual actions of Strategy in the future - whether to sell coins, how much to sell, and at what pace to sell - will become key variables determining the short-term direction of the cryptocurrency market, and the market will recalibrate its valuation logic for cryptocurrency assets in this long short game.