Cointime

Download App
iOS & Android

Did 8% Bitcoin price drop change bulls' chance of BTC hitting $100K?

Cointime Official

From cointelegraph by Marcel Pechman

Bitcoin BTC$92,544 faced an 8.2% pullback over four days after reaching its all-time high of $99,609 on Nov. 22. This decline led to $250 million in liquidations of bullish leveraged positions but failed to induce panic or push key metrics into bearish territory.

Bitcoin futures aggregate liquidation, USD. Source: CoinGlass

For perspective, the 22.6% price surge between Nov. 9 and Nov. 13 resulted in $342 million in buyer liquidations through BTC futures contracts, as indicated in the purple zone. Thus, the latest price correction does not necessarily signal a trend reversal but reflects temporary excessive leverage among derivatives traders.

To assess whether the inability to breach the $100,000 psychological threshold affected investor sentiment, it is crucial to evaluate Bitcoin miners' activity. These entities collectively hold approximately 1.8 million BTC—valued at over $166.3 billion—and are responsible for releasing 3.125 BTC per mined block. 

Bitcoin miners' net position change, BTC. Source: Glassnode

Recent data reveals that miners have been reducing their Bitcoin positions at a rate of approximately 2,500 BTC per day, equivalent to $231 million. In contrast, US Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded an average daily inflow of $670 million between Nov. 18 and Nov. 22.

While some might attribute the failure to surpass the $100,000 level to miner selling, this explanation appears insufficient. Notably, MicroStrategy announced a $5.4 billion Bitcoin acquisition on Nov. 25, demonstrating robust institutional demand. 

Long-term holders have also contributed to selling pressure. Historical patterns show similar behavior in late March, following multiple failed attempts to breach the $73,500 mark. Profit-taking by some whales triggered a two-month correction, culminating in Bitcoin hitting a low of $60,830 on May 1.

Is the Bitcoin bottom at $82,500?

If historical trends hold, Bitcoin’s price may bottom around $82,500—a standard 17% correction from its all-time high and far from signaling a bear market. In comparison, during the correction between March 14 and May 16, US spot Bitcoin ETF holdings showed little change, and MicroStrategy made a single purchase of 24,400 BTC.

This time, the landscape differs significantly. Spot ETF buying remains strong, with additional institutional players mirroring MicroStrategy’s approach. Among these are Japan's MetaPlanet, Semler Scientific in the US, and Marathon Digital, a leading global Bitcoin miner. This coordinated activity suggests growing corporate adoption, which could provide a solid support level for Bitcoin’s price.

Although it is uncertain whether these entities will maintain their Bitcoin acquisition pace, the fact that Microsoft shareholders are reportedly debating a similar strategy further bolsters market confidence. 

If whales and arbitrage desks anticipate a sharp price decline, hedging costs rise, pushing the put-to-call ratio above 6%. A key metric here is the 25% delta skew, which typically ranges between -6% and +6% in neutral markets. A skew outside this range suggests heightened fear or excessive optimism.

Related: Bitcoin‘s $93K dip could be ‘last flush’ before the rush: Analysts

Bitcoin 1-month options 25% delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: Laevitas

Data from the options market underscores this resilience. The bullish sentiment observed between Nov. 16 and Nov. 26 has faded, as put (sell) and call (buy) options now trade at similar premiums, indicating a shift to neutral sentiment. However, onchain metrics and derivatives show no signs of stress or indication of a looming bear market, pointing to a bullish price outlook for Bitcoin.

Comments

All Comments

Recommended for you

  • Trump Hints at 'Good News' on Iran Issue

    On April 18, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that there is some 'pretty good news' regarding the Iran issue, but he declined to provide further details. 'We heard some pretty good news about 20 minutes ago, and it seems that progress related to Iran in the Middle East is going very smoothly,' Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One. When asked what the so-called good news was, Trump replied, 'You will hear it. I think it is something that should happen. It is a matter of course. And I believe it will happen. We will see, but I think it will happen.' (Jinshi)

  • Trump Suggests War Will Resume if No Agreement with Iran is Reached

    On April 18, President Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that if an agreement with Iran is not reached by Wednesday, war will resume. When asked if he was prepared to extend the ceasefire agreement if no deal is made by the time the ceasefire expires on Wednesday, Trump replied, "Maybe I won't extend the ceasefire. But the blockade will continue. So, the blockade remains in place, and unfortunately, we will have to start dropping bombs again," Trump warned.

  • Chinese Ship Trapped in Strait of Hormuz Informs Crew to Prepare for Departure

    On April 18, according to Yicai, around 4 PM local time on the 17th, the Chinese ship trapped in the Strait of Hormuz has informed its crew to 'prepare for departure.' According to CCTV, on the afternoon of the 17th, Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian stated on social media that, based on the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon, all commercial vessels are allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz completely open during the remaining time of the ceasefire, following the coordinated routes announced by Iranian ports and maritime organizations.

  • DeepSeek Seeks Over $300 Million in First Round of External Funding

    According to The Information, DeepSeek is seeking over $300 million in its first round of external funding, with a valuation exceeding $10 billion.

  • BTC Surpasses $78,000

    Market data shows that BTC has surpassed $78,000, currently priced at $78,024.64, with a 24-hour increase of 5.63%. The market is highly volatile, so please ensure proper risk management.

  • BTC Surpasses $77,000

    Market data shows that BTC has surpassed $77,000, currently priced at $77,022.24, with a 24-hour increase of 3.42%. Due to significant market fluctuations, please ensure proper risk management.

  • US and Iran Discuss Plan to End War

    On April 17, U.S. media reported, citing two American officials and two sources familiar with the negotiations, that the United States and Iran are communicating about a plan aimed at ending the war. One key topic is the U.S. potentially unfreezing $20 billion of Iran's frozen assets in exchange for Iran giving up its enriched uranium stockpile. The report also quoted another source familiar with the mediation efforts, stating that negotiations are expected to take place this Sunday in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan. (Xinhua News Agency)

  • ETH Surpasses $2400

    Market data shows that ETH has surpassed $2400, currently priced at $2402.37, with a 24-hour increase of 2.58%. The market is experiencing significant volatility, so please ensure proper risk management.

  • US Plans to Unfreeze $20 Billion in Funds for Iran's Uranium Cessation

    On April 17, according to AXIOS, two US officials and two sources familiar with the negotiations revealed that the US and Iran are negotiating a three-page plan to end the conflict, one element of which involves the US unfreezing $20 billion of Iranian funds in exchange for Iran abandoning its enriched uranium stockpile. According to the two sources, in the early stages of negotiations, the US proposed unfreezing $6 billion for humanitarian supplies, while Iran requested $27 billion. The latest figures being discussed between the US and Iran are $20 billion. One US official stated that this is the US proposal. Another US official described the concept of 'cash for uranium' as 'one of many discussions.' Meanwhile, the US is demanding that Iran agree to send all its nuclear materials to the US, while Iran has only agreed to 'dilution' within its territory. Under the compromise being discussed, some highly enriched uranium would be sent to a third country (not necessarily the US), while some would be diluted under international supervision within Iran.

  • Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian: Commercial Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is Open

    On April 17, Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian announced that commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is now open.