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Bitcoin's next big resistance is $95K— What will trigger the breakout?

Validated Media

Key takeaways:

  • Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows are at their highest since January 2025.
  • Inflows to exchanges down to levels last seen in December 2016.
  • Bitcoin’s negative funding rates could set up a short squeeze.
  • BTC price is above major moving averages, which can now provide support.

Bitcoin’s price rose to a new range high at $94,700 on April 23, its highest value since March 2.

Several analysts said the next psychological resistance remains at $95,000, and the price might drop to test support levels below.

“The $94K–$95K zone is clearly the resistance to beat,” said Swissblock in an April 24 post on X. 

The onchain data provider asserted that the next logical move for Bitcoin would be a pullback toward the $90,000 zone to gain momentum for a move higher.

“The $89K–$90K zone could be next to test bulls, but with BTC’s structure strength, these dips are for buying.”

Popular Bitcoin analyst AlphaBTC opined that the asset will likely consolidate in the $93,000-$95,000 range “before pushing higher to take liquidity above 100K.”

Several bullish signs suggest that BTC is well-positioned to break above $95,000 in the following days or weeks.

Bitcoin ETF demand rebounds

One factor supporting the Bitcoin bull argument is resurgent institutional demand, reflected by significant inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

On April 22 and April 23, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net flow totaling $936 million and $917 million, respectively, as per data from SoSoValue.

As Cointelegraph reported, these inflows have been the highest since January 2025 and more than 500 times the 2025 daily average.

This trend reflects growing confidence among traditional finance players, as observed by market analysts like Jamie Coutts, who noted global liquidity hitting new all-time highs, historically fueling asset price rallies. 

Institutional buying creates sustained upward pressure on Bitcoin’s price by absorbing the available supply.

Less BTC supply on crypto exchanges

The trend of decreasing Bitcoin exchange inflows continues, suggesting a potential reduction in sell pressure. 

The total amount of coins transferred to the exchanges has dropped from a year-to-date high of 97,940 BTC per day on Feb. 25 to 45,000 BTC on April 23, as per data from CryptoQuant. 

This is reinforced by a reduction in the number of addresses depositing Bitcoin to exchanges, which has been “steadily declining since 2022,” according to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. 

He highlights that this metric’s 30-day moving average has dropped to 52,000 BTC, a level last seen in December 2016. 

“This trend is bullish in itself,” as it represents a fourfold reduction in coin sales over the last three years, the analyst said, adding:

  “Essentially, this represents growing HODL sentiment, which significantly reduces selling pressure, creating a foundation for further growth.”

Negative funding rates can fuel BTC rally

Bitcoin price has rebounded to levels last seen in early March, but futures trades are not entirely on board yet. 

Bitcoin’s perpetual futures funding rates remained negative between April 22 and April 23, despite the price rising by 11% over the same period, data from Glassnode shows.

Negative funding rates imply that shorts are paying longs, reflecting a bearish sentiment that can fuel a short squeeze as prices rise.

In an April 22 post on X, CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost highlighted a similar divergence in Bitcoin’s price and Binance funding rates. 

“Whereas BTC continues to climb, funding rates on Binance have turned negative, currently sitting at around -0.006 at the time of writing,” Darkfost explained.

He added that this is a rare occurrence, which has historically been followed by significant rallies, like Bitcoin’s surge from $28,000 to $73,000 in October 2023, and from $57,000 to $108,000 in September 2024.

If history repeats itself, Bitcoin may rally from the current levels, breaking above the resistance at $95,000 toward $100,000.

Bitcoin trades above the 200-day SMA

On April 22, Bitcoin price rose above a key level: the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) currently at $88,690, fueling a marketwide recovery.

The last time the BTC price broke above the 200-day SMA, it experienced a parabolic move, rallying 80% from $66,000 on Oct. 14, 2024, to its previous all-time high of $108,000 on Dec. 17. 

This level should provide significant support as Bitcoin trades above this key trendline. But if it doesn’t hold, the following levels to watch will likely be $84,379, the 50-day SMA, and the $80,000 psychological level.

For the bulls, the resistance levels at $95,000 and $100,000 are the primary ones to watch. Rising above that would pave the way for a run toward the Jan. 20 all-time high above $109,000.

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