Cointime

Cointime

Download App
iOS & Android

Bitcoin’s $19.8B options expiry is coming up — What does it mean for BTC price?

Cointime Official

From cointelegraph by Marcel Pechman

Bitcoin BTC$101,453 investors are bracing for the $19.8 billion options expiry scheduled for Dec. 27 at 8:00 am UTC. The recent rally above $100,000 has caught bearish investors off guard, creating an opportunity for bullish traders to capitalize and potentially fuel a new Bitcoin all-time high.

Aggregate Bitcoin options open interest for Dec. 27. Source: Laevitas.ch

Currently, total open interest for call (buy) options stands at $12 billion, while put (sell) options trail at $7.8 billion. Deribit dominates the options market with a 72% share, followed by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) at 12% and Binance at 9%. However, Bitcoin’s 68% price surge over the past three months has rendered most put options ineffective.

As the expiry date approaches, both bulls and bears are incentivized to influence Bitcoin’s spot price. Yet, while bullish investors are targeting levels above $110,000, their optimism alone does not guarantee that BTC will breach this threshold.

Bulls are better positioned ahead of the year-end expiry

Institutional demand for Bitcoin remains robust, with spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) attracting $4.5 billion in inflows during the first 12 days of December. Additionally, MicroStrategy acquired 21,550 BTC between Dec. 2 and Dec. 8 at an average price of $98,783 per Bitcoin. Similarly, Bitcoin miner MARA Holdings disclosed the purchase of 11,744 BTC on Dec. 10.

Crucially, investors are also weighing the potential approval of a US strategic Bitcoin reserve, a proposal by Senator Cynthia Lummis that aims to accumulate up to 1 million BTC over time. Other states, such as Texas, are considering similar measures. A Texas lawmaker has introduced legislation to hold Bitcoin as a reserve asset for at least five years, explicitly stating that “no taxpayer funds would be spent on buying Bitcoin.”

Given the current market dynamics, Bitcoin bulls are strategically better positioned for the year-end options expiry. For example, if Bitcoin’s price remains around $100,500 at 8:00 am UTC on Dec. 27, only $275 million worth of put (sell) options will retain value. This scenario arises because the option to sell at $100,000 becomes worthless if BTC trades above that threshold at expiry.

Related: Bitcoin could hit $160K in 2025, fueled by improving macro conditions

Bitcoin bears aim for sub-$95,000 levels to mitigate losses

Below are five probable scenarios based on current price trends. These outcomes estimate theoretical profits based on open interest imbalances but exclude complex strategies, such as selling put options to gain upside price exposure.

  • Between $90,000 and $95,000: $4.6 billion in calls vs. $1.1 billion in puts. The net result favors the call (buy) instruments by $3.6 billion.
  • Between $95,000 and $100,000: $5.6 billion calls vs. $520 million puts, favoring calls by $5.1 billion.
  • Between $100,000 and $105,000: $7.12 billion calls vs. $240 million puts. favoring calls by $6.9 billion.
  • Between $105,000 and $112,000: $8.13 billion calls vs. $120 million puts, favoring calls by $8 billion.

To avoid significant losses, bears need to drive prices below $95,000 ahead of the Dec. 27 expiry. On the other hand, bulls stand to maximize their gains if they can push BTC above $105,000, marking a new all-time high. Such a scenario could serve as a pivotal victory to sustain bullish momentum heading into early 2026.

Comments

All Comments

Recommended for you

  • Amazon Shares Surge 15.2%, Biggest Gain Since 2012

    On July 31, Amazon shares surged 15.2% to $271.255 per share, marking their biggest gain since 2012, with a total market value of $2.92 trillion.

  • US Treasury Secretary Bessent Vows to Track Down Iranian Assets Globally for Terror Victims

    US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US will actively track down Iranian assets worldwide to ensure compensation funds for victims of Iran-backed terrorist activities. Bessent stated that the US government's military and economic blockade measures against the Iranian regime will continue and will not be relaxed. (Jinshi)

  • Apple Plunges Nearly 10%, Q4 Revenue Guidance Misses Expectations

    On July 31, Apple (AAPL.US) plunged nearly 10% to $300.33, marking its biggest drop since April 2025. In terms of fundamentals, Apple's third-fiscal-quarter revenue rose approximately 16% year-over-year to $109.42 billion, slightly above analyst expectations. Among the details, product revenue came in at $78.68 billion, beating the expected $77.25 billion. However, services revenue—a key driver of its valuation re-rating in recent years—totaled $30.74 billion, missing the consensus estimate of $31.36 billion. Additionally, Greater China revenue reached $18.82 billion, with year-over-year growth slowing to 22%, also below analysts' forecast of $19.58 billion. During the earnings call, Apple guided fourth-fiscal-quarter revenue growth in the range of 9% to 11%, overall below the 12.1% analysts had expected. CFO Parekh noted that component supply constraints would impact iPhone, Mac, and iPad businesses in the fourth fiscal quarter, with currency fluctuations also constraining growth.

  • Three Fed Officials Back Rate Hike, Hawkish Pressure Builds

    On July 31, three Federal Reserve policymakers said that dissenting votes in favor of a rate hike this week stemmed from stubborn inflationary pressures, highlighting rising internal pressure on Fed Chair Warsh to act. In statements released Friday morning, Hammack and Kashkari said they worry that although the current round of price increases may stem from short-term factors such as President Trump's tariff policies and the Iran war, the inflation situation already warrants Fed action. Logan also joined in, saying that even if inflation cools, if the Fed does not raise rates, inflation is unlikely to fully fall back to the Fed's 2% target; without any policy constraints, inflation could continue to run above target until an unexpected shock occurs. Kashkari said that if inflation remains persistently stubborn, he might support a series of rate hikes, not just a single increase, to prevent inflation from becoming further entrenched. He said: "A series of small policy adjustments may be preferable to waiting for developments to unfold and ultimately having to take more forceful action." Hammack said that if the Fed does not tighten policy, price increases could continue to accelerate. She said: "Inflation has been stubbornly above 2% for more than five years, and I have no confidence that it will return to our target on its own." (Jin Shi)

  • US 10-Year Treasury Yield Rises to 4.7388%, Highest Since January 2025

    On July 31, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.7388%, the highest level since January 2025.

  • Spot Gold Intraday Decline Widens to 2%, at $4,021.08 per Ounce

    On July 31, spot gold's intraday decline widened to 2%, reported at $4,021.08 per ounce.

  • BTC Falls Below $63,000

    Market数据显示，BTC has fallen below $63,000, currently reported at $62,985.99, with a 24-hour decline of 2.99%. Market volatility is significant, please exercise risk control.

  • Fed's Logan: Leaning Toward 25 Basis Point Rate Hike

    On July 31, Federal Reserve Governor Logan said she leans toward a 25 basis point rate hike, believing inflation has not yet entered a sustainable path back to the Fed's 2% target. Logan stated that taking moderate action now would reduce the risk of needing more aggressive tightening in the future, while emphasizing that the Fed cannot rely on unexpected shocks to achieve its inflation target.

  • Fed's Logan: Taking Modest Actions Now Reduces Likelihood of Needing Stronger Action Later

    On July 31, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said that taking modest actions in the near term would reduce the likelihood of needing to take stronger action in the future.

  • Philadelphia Semiconductor Index Erases 5% Gain, Turns Lower

    On July 31, U.S. chip and semiconductor stocks rapidly weakened, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index wiping out a 5% gain and turning lower. Micron Technology, which had risen 6%, is now down 4.2%. SanDisk, which had gained nearly 10%, is now down over 6%. SK Hynix and Seagate Technology, which had risen over 8%, are now down 2%. TSMC, which had gained 4%, is now down nearly 1%.

Daily Must-Read

Popular Activities

RaveDAO at Terra Solis by Tomorrowland: A Female-Led Techno Night Where Web3 Culture Converges

RaveDAO at Terra Solis by Tomorrowland: A Female-Led Techno Night Where Web3 Culture Converges

April 30 - April 30
Dubai

Popular Tags

Cointime
News
Contents
RSS
Company