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2023 Crypto Outlook: The Fear of Contagion and the Attitude Toward Rebuilding

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If 2021 was the year of crypto carnival — with major cryptocurrencies kept recording new all-time highs. 2022 was, by any definitive, a brutal and rough year for crypto industry. It has been strewn with by black swan events and ended with the ultimate collapse of FTX.

Now the question is, what would it be like in 2023?

Contagion to continue in 2023

The contagion since May 2022 isn’t anywhere close to over yet.

“We will see the closure of funds and the faltering of companies we didn’t expect – mostly simply due to the fact that the contagion is too vast and too difficult for us all to quantify,” says Cas Piancey, co-host of the “Crypto Critics’ Corner” podcast

Analytics platform CryptoCompare agrees. CryptoCompare noted that it would take some time for the market to fully recover from the impact of FTX’s collapse, as the exchange’s ties to numerous crypto firms will continue to influence the industry’s recovery into the new year.

Keep building in 2023 but be prepared for more fallout in the near term.

Crypto regulation is coming

After such volatility and spectacular collapse in 2022, crypto regulation is definitely on top of mind for 2023.

Dozens of crypto-related bills, acts, and laws have been proposed, debated, and pushed forward around the world. Member countries of G20 seek to build a cryptocurrency policy consensus that will likely inform the global digital assets sector regulation.

US incoming House Financial Services Committee chair reintroduces bill on crypto and senator plans to regulate payment stablecoins. European Parliament would shortly “vote on adopting the regulation on markets in crypto-assets (MiCA).” The game-changer Financial Services and Markets Bill should be passed into law by spring 2023 in the UK. Australia announced that the country will introduce stricter rules for crypto in early 2023.

Now the pressure is on institutions, organizations, regulators, and policymakers.

Price predictions for 2023: bear or bull?

Most big banks and investment managers expect the cryptocurrency market to pick up in 2023. Analysts and influencers are predicting that 2023 would be a better year for crypto.  “The majority of 2023 will be less frantic and borderline uneventful compared to the last three years,” Arcane Research predicts in its year-end report and states there are quite a few potential catalysts for a renowned bull market in 2023. Billionaire venture capitalist Tim Draper, known for successfully timing Bitcoin’s $10,000 milestone in late 2017, believes Bitcoin will reach $250K by 2024.

However, some are quite pessimistic regarding the near-term future. Eric Robertsen, Global Head of Research at Standard Chartered Bank, forecasts Bitcoin falling to $5,000 if the current collapse spreads. “The ongoing crypto winter could last longer this time,” says David Kemmerer, CEO of CoinLedger. Kemmerer added Ethereum will likely fall further, "it would not be surprising to see a three-digit price for ETH again in the next six months".

Rising adoptions around the world

Aside from the price action, Research company Messari expects crypto adoption at global government level.  “Short of a significant Fed pivot on interest rate policy, the next demand-side shock for bitcoin will likely happen at the global government level, not big corporations.” Messari stated in its Crypto Theses for 2023 report.  

Human Rights specialist Alex Gladstein shared the same opinion. Alex expects global adoption to be “the number one story” next year as the efforts of Bitcoin entrepreneurs around the world bear fruit.

CoinTelegraph, BlockFi co-founder Flori Marquez also agrees, crediting regulatory clarity and improved understanding of the industry for helping drive greater adoption. 

A big year for Bitcoin and Ethereum

Some crypto investors predict that spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could be approved by mid-2023 given a proposed US SEC rule change that redefines exchanges. It would be the first spot Bitcoin ETF in the US, giving investors direct exposure to the cryptocurrency.

After successfully executing the landmark The Merge upgrade in September, Ethereum’s next major upgrade — Shanghai, is planned for the second quarter of 2023. This upgrade will enable withdrawals of locked ether (ETH) stakes, which could increase the amount of staked ETH as stakers.

It’s time to rebuild

We should see that every market collapse presents an opportunity to foster integrity, transparency, and accountability in crypto market. And we believe this will be the case for crypto in 2023.

Just as Sandra Ro, CEO of the Global Blockchain Business Council, said:

“Regroup with humility, rebuild with integrity, regain trust, rise again.”

2023 would be the year for crypto to regroup, rebuild and rerise.

We will all be part of the story.

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