Wintermute posted on X stating that it is clear we are already in a bear market, and in fact, it has lasted for some time—especially judging by the performance of altcoins, the extreme concentration of rebounds, and market sentiment on X. However, what makes this bear market different is that it was not triggered by structural collapses like FTX, Luna, or 3AC, but rather driven by macroeconomic conditions and cyclical trend changes, representing a relatively natural deleveraging process, with the core driving forces being changes in positions, risk appetite, and market narratives.

This is very important. Since there have been no bankruptcies or systemic contagion, this cycle may end faster than previous bear markets. The infrastructure is more robust, stablecoin adoption is still growing, and institutional interest has not disappeared but has temporarily taken a wait-and-see stance. Once the environment improves, attention and funds are likely to return quickly—most likely in the second half of 2026, when macro uncertainty decreases and the Federal Reserve's policy path becomes clearer.

In the short term, positions have clearly lightened after liquidations, but market confidence remains insufficient. After two months of range-bound fluctuations, we have returned to a price discovery phase. It is still too early to talk about any meaningful upward trend, but if it occurs, its shape may be clearer than the reversals seen in previous bear markets—because this time, the crypto ecosystem has not suffered structural damage.