QCP Capital's latest analysis pointed out that the biggest near-term risk is the upcoming deadline of April 2, when it is expected that Trump will introduce a new round of reciprocal tariffs. This remains the most direct resistance faced by risk assets. Tonight's FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged. However, QCP Capital will closely monitor any dovish shift, especially regarding changes in growth and inflation expectations. Given that the impact of tariffs takes months to ripple through the economy, it is expected that the Fed will maintain a "wait-and-see" mode. Although the tariff decision on April 2 has already been hinted at, it still remains a key uncertainty factor.

With the unwinding of momentum and arbitrage trades, market positions continue to be cleared. Bitcoin found some support around $80,000, but in the broader macroeconomic soft background, this support seems very fragile. QCP Capital stated that it will not attempt to predict the exact timing of a market reversal, but in the short term, it is difficult to find meaningful positive factors to reverse this decline. The focus remains on preserving capital with a break-even return strategy to hedge against long-term downside risks.