On April 4, the Oxford Economics Institute stated that the employment figures for March in the U.S. greatly overestimate the strength of the pre-war job market, as the data also reflects a decline in both the labor force and household employment. With the impact of the Iran war on actual economic activity, job growth is expected to slow down. The war's immediate effect on inflation is evident, but the negative impacts on consumer spending, business investment, and hiring will become more apparent in the coming months. The Oxford Economics Institute's baseline forecast remains that the Federal Reserve will overlook the one-time shock of rising oil prices and cut rates twice this year to guard against any potential weakness in the labor market.