Goldman Sachs expects that economic activity and price indicators released since the April monetary policy meeting continue to show a strengthening of the benign cycle in Japan, but the impact of tariff hikes may materialize in the future. From a risk management perspective, in a highly uncertain situation, it is expected that the Bank of Japan will maintain its policy rate in June, while maintaining its gradual stance on interest rate hikes. We maintain our base scenario and believe that the next policy rate hike will be in January 2026. Regarding the Bank of Japan's midterm assessment of the current Japanese government bond purchase reduction plan (as of March 2026), we expect the existing plan to remain unchanged. After that, we expect the Bank of Japan to continue reducing bond purchases, although at a slower pace, but within a year, the Bank of Japan will accelerate the reduction of bond purchases to a level of around 2 trillion yen per month, which is in line with the range of responses to a survey conducted by the Bank of Japan to market participants ahead of the QQE launch, and consistent with levels before QQE began.