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Bitfinex Alpha: The crypto market may be in the calm before the storm

On November 4th, Bitfinex Alpha released its latest report "Calm Before the Storm". After 8 months of volatility, Bitcoin almost broke its historical high last week, but then sharply fell back. We believe that this round of rise was initially driven by the "Trump trade" narrative, and then gave way due to the continued uncertainty about the results of tomorrow's US presidential election. This lack of confidence is also reflected in the Bitcoin options market. Before the election, the market believed that a Republican victory would be beneficial to Bitcoin, while a Democratic victory would make the prospects more uncertain. The average odds of Trump winning have dropped from 64.9% to 56%. In the options market, the front-end implied volatility of the earliest expiring contracts was unusually stable before election day (November 5th). This low volatility indicates that investors are watching and waiting for the dust to settle. However, it is expected that the volatility will still surge between November 5th and 8th, which may push the market to fluctuate significantly, or if not realized, may indicate that the market is more cautious. The altcoin market also showed a lackluster performance, with Bitcoin's market share reaching over 60%, a new cycle high. As Bitcoin absorbed most of the funds flowing into crypto assets, altcoins were unable to keep up and without new catalysts, their short-term prospects for recovery seem bleak. Despite a slight pullback last week, Bitcoin's overall resilience since its September low is still worth noting. In short, the current market dynamics indicate that the next week will be full of excitement.

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