On April 17, Ryoji Musha, president of Japan's Musha Research, stated that the gap between the pessimistic sentiment reported by the media and actual market behavior is significant and cannot be ignored. Since the outbreak of the Iran conflict on February 28, the S&P 500 index has recovered all its losses and is now just 1% away from its historical high. While the prices of recently delivered crude oil futures remain high, the prices for contracts due in six months have fallen back to the $70 range. Therefore, the market is not assuming that the Strait of Hormuz will be closed for an extended period, nor is it anticipating a third oil crisis. Furthermore, Musha pointed out that the world's dependence on oil is not as high as it was in the 1970s, and the share of oil in Japan's energy structure has decreased from 76% during the first oil crisis to 35% in 2024. Alternative routes for oil transport, such as pipelines from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, already exist, and a long-term closure of the Strait of Hormuz would not be in Iran's interest, as this strait is also a lifeline for Iranian trade. Japan remains vulnerable to rising costs of imported energy and transportation, but the market's trading behavior no longer suggests an impending full-blown oil crisis.