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Analysis: If Bitcoin closes above $96,337 in Q1, Strategy is expected to be included in the S&P 500 index in the first half of the year

Strategy (MSTR) is expected to be included in the S&P 500 index by June 20th. Currently, the company meets all the eligibility requirements, except for one: achieving positive GAAP net income in the past 12 months (sum of the last four quarters). To qualify, the company's earnings for the first quarter of 2025 must be high enough to offset the losses from the previous three quarters. This goal can be achieved by adopting the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) digital asset accounting rules (now mandatory).

For this to happen, Bitcoin needs to have a closing price in the first quarter higher than the company's average purchase price over these three months, which is $96,337. A closing price below this level will force Strategy to report a loss, potentially hindering its inclusion in the S&P 500 index.

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