Garrett Jin, the agent of the '1011 Insider Whale', pointed out in his latest market commentary that the Strait of Hormuz has effectively been 'blocked' for three months amid the Middle East conflict. However, the market has already become 'desensitized' to this geopolitical risk, as AI narratives are changing traditional risk pricing logic. AI is significantly weakening the market's sensitivity to oil prices and geopolitical shocks. Since the ceasefire signals emerged, U.S. stocks have decoupled from energy shocks, with gains in chip and tech stocks offsetting the impact from the energy sector. The market is gradually ignoring the risks associated with Hormuz, and the AI sector currently faces valuation and crowded trade risks, which could lead to a pullback at any time. The liquidity turning point in the crypto market actually occurred last October, with more funds flowing into AI assets, resulting in a phase of blood loss in the crypto market. It remains in a cyclical bear market; while a rebound is possible, it does not equate to the start of a new bull market. The market must wait for the new cycle liquidity to restart.
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