What to know:

Bitcoin has bounced back to a price zone that blocked gains late last year. But on-chain data from Glassnode offers hope: This time, long-term holders are taking profits much more slowly than in 2025, easing the brakes on the price rally.

These veterans, defined by Glassnode as wallets holding coins for over five months, have dumped over 100,000 BTC ($9.62 billion) in weekly profits last year, when BTC traded at its lifetime highs well above $100,000. Now that's slowed to just 12,800 BTC a week.

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"This moderation suggests profit-taking remains active, but far less aggressive than during prior distribution phases," Glassnode said in a recent note.

This slowdown in profit realization couldn't have come at a better time, as BTC's recent 10% two-week rise has pushed prices right into the historic sell zone of $93,000-$110,000. In recent weeks, long-term holders have booked profits at that price range, strengthening supply in the market.

Price action since November makes it obvious: Multiple attempts to stage a sustained recovery rally fizzed out right around the lower edge of that sell zone.

"Each attempt higher has encountered renewed sell-side pressure, preventing price from sustaining a structural recovery," Glassnode said.

With prices once again trading in that supply zone, the firm stressed that "absorbing long-term holder distribution remains a prerequisite for any broader trend reversal."

While easing of selling pressure of long-term holders supports the case for a continued rally toward $100,000, potential escalation in tensions between the U.S. and Iran could lead to broad-based risk aversion and push BTC lower.