Cointime

Download App
iOS & Android

Bitcoin at $200K by Year-End Is Now Firmly in Play, Analyst Says After Muted U.S. Inflation Data

What to know:

  • Softer-than-expected U.S. inflation has likely set the stage for accelerated gains in BTC, potentially to $200,000 by year-end, according to a strategist at 21Shares.
  • The consumer price index rose 0.1% last month, below economists' expectations, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to ease policy.
  • Bitcoin's price was $108,440 at press time, with traders anticipating multiple rate cuts by the Fed this year.

Wednesday's softer-than-expected U.S. inflation has likely set the stage for accelerated gains in bitcoin , potentially to $200,000 by the end of the year, according to Matt Mena, crypto research strategist at 21Shares.

"If BTC breaks out of the $105K-$110K range with conviction, we could see a sharp move to $120K and, more importantly, reach our year-end price target of $138.5K by the end of the summer," Mena told CoinDesk in an email.

"Today’s CPI print may serve as a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin - and it may be the unlock that brings this target forward by several months. If momentum continues building, a $200K Bitcoin by year-end is now firmly in play," Mena added.

21Shares is one of the world's first and largest issuers of crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs),

The report from the Labor Department released Wednesday showed that the cost of living, measured by the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.1% last month after increasing 0.2% in April. Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast a 0.2% increase.

Notably, the CPI for durable goods, most of which are imported or manufactured with imported content, decreased by a seasonally adjusted 0.1% month-to-month (-1.3% annualized), indicating that President Donald Trump's tariffs have not yet been fully passed through to the final consumer.

The annualized CPI advanced 2.4%, with core inflation matching the pace of April at 2.8%.

"This continued trend of cooling inflation strengthens the case for potential policy easing later this year. With the Fed’s June meeting approaching, the focus now shifts to how soon policymakers may respond to cooling inflation and shifting macro clarity," Mena said in an email to CoinDesk.

The CPI report prompted traders to price in 47 basis points of Fed easing, equivalent to roughly two 25 basis point rate cuts, this year, compared to 42 basis points early this week. Further, traders priced fully priced the rate cut for October, with the September probability hovering above 70%.

Mena explained that the CPI tailwind comes on the heels of several bullish catalysts, such as sovereign and institutional adoption and the impending stablecoin regulation.

"As macro clarity improves, we should see Bitcoin flows accelerate - driven by renewed institutional confidence, increased activity from Bitcoin treasuries, and the continued rollout of state-level Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) programs. These dynamics could supercharge ETF inflows and reinforce Bitcoin’s evolving role in global portfolios. Bitcoin is built for this environment," Mena noted.

Comments

All Comments

Recommended for you

  • North Korean hackers used AI-enabled social engineering in Zerion attack

    It is the second long-term social-engineering attack this month, after the $280 million exploit of the Drift Protocol.

  • BTC Surpasses $74,000

    Market data shows that BTC has surpassed $74,000, currently priced at $74,005.64, with a 24-hour decline of 0.54%. The market is experiencing significant volatility, so please ensure proper risk management.

  • Paxos Labs to use $12M raise toward yield, lending, issuance tools

    Backed by Blockchain Capital, the Amplify suite aims to enable platforms to generate yield and offer lending using customer-held digital assets.

  • US Spot Ethereum ETF Sees Net Inflow of $53.03 Million Yesterday

    On April 15, according to monitoring by Trader T, the US spot Ethereum ETF experienced a net inflow of $53.03 million yesterday.

  • US Spot Bitcoin ETF Sees Net Inflow of $411.49 Million Yesterday

    On April 15, according to monitoring by Trader T, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $411.49 million yesterday.

  • Bessent: Tariff Levels May Be Restored Before Early July

    On April 15, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that the tariff levels imposed by Trump may be restored to their pre-Supreme Court ruling levels before early July. After the Supreme Court ruled that Trump's use of emergency powers to impose early tariffs was unconstitutional, Bessent is seeking to rebuild his 'tariff wall' using different authorizations, such as Section 301 investigations. Bessent mentioned that while it is difficult to predict when the consequences of the Iraq War will 'spill over' into the U.S. economy, the current economic conditions remain strong. He believes that the U.S. growth rate this year could easily exceed 3% or even 3.5%. He also added that the continuous decline in core inflation, excluding volatile energy and food prices, is a positive sign. Bessent stated, 'I believe the Federal Reserve has consistently misjudged the inflation issue; core inflation is declining. If they want to wait for clearer data before taking action, I understand, but that would mean interest rates should be lowered more.' (Jin Shi)

  • BTC Falls Below $74,000

    Market data shows that BTC has fallen below $74,000, currently priced at $73,999.01, with a 24-hour decline of 0.15%. The market is experiencing significant volatility; please ensure proper risk management.

  • Goldman Sachs Plans to Launch 'Bitcoin Premium Yield ETF'

    On April 14, according to market news, Goldman Sachs has submitted an application to launch the 'Bitcoin Premium Yield ETF'.

  • ETH Breaks $2400

    Market data shows that ETH has surpassed $2400, currently priced at $2404.84, with a 24-hour increase of 8.75%. The market is highly volatile, so please ensure proper risk management.