Last summer, I travelled to the mecca of doosh doosh (house music) in Ibiza. It was a specialist mission consisting of myself and three homies. The organizer of the jaunt was one of my boys from university, who has resided in London since graduating. He lives for the European summer and organized one hell of a trip.

“Why is Bitcoin not rising in tandem with large-cap US tech companies index in the Nasdaq 100?”

The dollar-yen exchange rate is the most important macroeconomic indicator. In my last essay, “The Easy Button,” I wrote that something must be done to strengthen the yen. The solution I proposed was that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could swap unlimited amounts of freshly printed dollars with the Bank of Japan (BOJ) for yen. This would allow the BOJ to give unlimited dollar firepower to the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MOF), with which they could purchase the yen in the global forex markets.

The global elites have various policy tools to prop up the status quo, which inflict pain now or later. I take the cynical view that the only goal of elected and unelected bureaucrats is to remain in power. Therefore, the easy button is constantly pressed first. Hard choices and strong medicine are best left for the next administration.

Some of you degens were screaming “Mayday” as you watched crypto markets puke from mid-April until the present. There was so much pain that momentum-chasing paper hands like Irene Zhao proclaimed that they were “done” with crypto. As if – she will dutifully return posting crypto thirst traps once Bitcoin is back trending up and to the right in short order.

Some of you think you are masters of the universe right now because you bought Solana sub $10 and sold it at $200. Others did the smart thing and sold fiat for crypto during the 2021 to 2023 bear market but lightened up as prices surged in the first quarter of this year. If you sold shitcoins for Bitcoin, you get a pass. Bitcoin is the hardest money ever created. If you sold shitcoins for fiat that you don’t immediately need for living expenses, you are fucking up. Fiat will continue to be printed ad infinitum until the system resets.

The Bitcoin block reward is forecast to halve on April 20th. This is seen as a bullish catalyst for crypto markets. I agree that it will pump prices in the medium term; however, the price action directly before and after could be negative. The narrative of the halving being positive for crypto prices is well entrenched. When most market participants agree on a certain outcome, the opposite usually occurs. That is why I believe Bitcoin and crypto prices in general will slump around the halving.

We are all speculators. Every instant we exist in this universe is filled with uncertainty. In our attempt to wade through an unpredictable existence, our brain constantly constructs a probabilistic map of our environment. Our actions are based not on facts but on perceived probabilities across various outcomes.