US short-term interest rate traders have increased their bets on the Fed starting to cut interest rates in June 2024.

The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%, in line with market expectations.

On November 1st, according to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in the range of 5.25%-5.50% this week is 98.4%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to the range of 5.50%-5.75% is 0.0%.

October 30th, the Federal Reserve will announce the new interest rate decision at 2:00 AM Beijing time on November 2nd (early Thursday morning). According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of maintaining interest rates in the range of 5.25%-5.50% is 97.4%.

Based on CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in November is 99.0%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to the range of 5.50%-5.75% is 1.0%.

Nick Timiraos, the voice of the Federal Reserve, in his latest article evaluating the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, Powell hinted that he was pleased with the decline in summer inflation and that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates again unless there is clear evidence that the strengthening of economic activity will jeopardize progress on inflation. Powell's comments are closely related to recent comments by other Federal Reserve officials, all of which suggest that they are prepared to keep interest rates unchanged at the next meeting. This is partly because the rise in long-term yields over the past month may slow economic growth, and if yields rise, they will actually replace rate hikes. When describing whether monetary policy will be tightened again, Powell used the word "possible" twice instead of the stronger word "will": "Evidence of a strong economy may pose risks to further progress in inflation or become a reason for further tightening of policy."

Nick Timiraos, a spokesperson for the Federal Reserve, recently commented on the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Powell hinted that he was pleased with the decline in inflation this summer and that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates again unless there is clear evidence that economic activity will jeopardize inflation progress. Powell's comments are closely related to recent comments from other Federal Reserve officials, all of which suggest that they are prepared to keep interest rates unchanged at the next meeting. This is partly because the rise in long-term yields over the past month may slow economic growth, and if yields rise, they will effectively replace interest rate hikes. When describing whether monetary policy will be tightened again, Powell used the word "possible" twice instead of the stronger word "will": "Evidence of strong economic growth may pose a risk to further progress in inflation reduction, or may be a reason for further tightening of policy."

Federal Reserve Board member Waller said that no one expects a rate cut in the near future.

Federal Reserve board member Bullard stated in a speech that if the economy continues to strengthen, higher interest rates may be needed; before making a decision on interest rates, we can wait, observe, and watch.