ETC Group research director André Dragosch stated that based on the current price of federal fund futures, market participants expect the Fed to begin an interest rate cut cycle in May, and the market has already digested the possibility of a rate cut in March. Dragosch predicts that the cryptocurrency market may have a delayed reaction to the rate cut, and Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may initially face selling pressure until May when the situation is expected to improve.

According to CME Federal Reserve Watch: the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in March is 61%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 39%. The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged until May is 27.7%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 51%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 21.3%.

Based on the "Fed Watch" data from CME, the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in February is 97.9%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2.1%.

On January 24th, the Governor of the People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, announced that the central bank will reduce the reserve requirement ratio for deposits by 0.5 percentage points on February 5th, providing the market with long-term liquidity of about 1 trillion yuan; tomorrow, the interest rates for supporting agriculture and small businesses will be lowered by 0.25 percentage points, and the comprehensive financing cost of society will continue to be stabilized and reduced.

Laura Cooper, senior investment strategist at BlackRock, expects the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates in June, earlier than the European Central Bank. She predicts that the Fed will cut rates by 75-100 basis points by the end of the year. She said the Fed's first rate cut will be "quickly followed by the European Central Bank," and the Bank of England may cut rates after the European Central Bank, and the European Central Bank will have to make a larger rate cut. Traders are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time in May; Cooper said the market has become "very active" in pricing, adding, "there still needs to be some degree of repricing, which makes us more convinced that there will be some volatility in the future." <br>

Based on the "Fed Watch" data from CME, the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in February is 97.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2.6%.

BlackRock CEO Fink stated that the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to occur in June.

The latest research report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) points out that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) in December increased by 3.4% year-on-year (previous value 3.1%), and the core CPI increased by 3.9% year-on-year (previous value 4.0%), both higher than expected. We believe that the general direction of US inflation is still slowing down, but the pace is highly uncertain, which means that the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve will be full of variables. If the Federal Reserve turns to loose monetary policy too early, it may lead to a rebound in demand, increasing the risk of "economic non-landing" and "second inflation". Therefore, investors should be more cautious about expectations of interest rate cuts, and the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates in March as the market hopes, and the expectation of six interest rate cuts throughout the year may be too aggressive.

CME's "Fed Watch": the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in February is 99.5%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 0.5%. The probability of maintaining interest rates in March is 33.8%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 65.8%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 0.3%.

Fitch Ratings analyst: "We no longer expect the US economy to decline in 2024 and predict that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times this year."