According to CME's "FedWatch" data on December 6th, the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in the 5.25%-5.50% range is 99.9%, while the probability of a 25 basis point increase is 0.1%.

Boosted by weak US economic data and dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials, spot gold opened on Monday with a short-term increase of over $60, reaching a high of $2,133 per ounce and rising more than 3% during the day. Forexlive analyst Eamonn Sheridan stated that this is because the market is being stimulated to buy gold in large quantities due to the prospect of future Fed rate cuts, with investors currently betting on a rate cut by the Fed early next year. <br>

Bitcoin retreated from resistance levels following the release of better-than-expected US GDP figures on November 29. The retracement was in line with previous short-term price movements. The GDP data, which showed Q3 growth of 5.2%, raised concerns about how the Federal Reserve would handle policy ahead of an interest rates decision in mid-December. Analysts suggested that Bitcoin was likely to continue consolidating, with some eyeing potential downside opportunities and others predicting a fresh bout of upside volatility.

Based on CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in December is 95.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 4.7%. The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged until February next year is 89.4%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at 10.3%. The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 0.3%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut in March next year is 21.5%, the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged is 70.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 7.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 0.2%.

CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in the range of 5.25% to 5.50% in December is 94.8%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 5.2%. The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged until February next year is 94.8%, and the probability of cumulatively raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 5.2%. The probability of cumulatively lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in March next year is 28.4%, the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged is 67.9%, and the probability of cumulatively raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 3.6%.

Based on CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in the 5.25%-5.50% range in December is 100%, while the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to the 5.50%-5.75% range is 0%.

The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in December, as observed by CME, is 95.2%. The probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to the range of 5.50%-5.75% is 4.8%. The probability of maintaining interest rates in January next year is 91.2%, with a probability of cumulative interest rate hikes of 25 basis points at 8.6% and a probability of cumulative interest rate hikes of 50 basis points at 0.2%.

According to the exchange contract display, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points in 2024. <br>

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: We are currently not considering or discussing interest rate cuts.

Wall Street Journal reports that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at a 22-year high, but there is still a possibility of further rate hikes to continue to slow down inflation. In the FOMC statement, officials noted strong recent economic activity and emphasized the potential pressure on economic activity from rising long-term interest rates. The major issue facing the Federal Reserve is focused on officials' expectations for the economy and how they can come to conclusions about whether they are moving in the right or wrong direction. Continued slowing of inflation may allow officials to maintain interest rates, while any acceleration in price pressures could lead to further rate hikes.