Currently, the global capital market is quietly brewing an unexpected, high-speed, and significant asset boom. Reviewing century old historical data, stock market return patterns, US stock profit growth rates, Bitcoin cycle indicators, and future monetary policy trends, multiple dimensions simultaneously release extremely strong bullish signals. From traditional US stocks to encrypted core assets, a cross category bull market is likely to fully land in the next 12 months.

1、 Centennial historical pattern: In this round of US stock market rise cycle, the winning rate and return space in the future are extremely high

The market is always full of volatility and divergence in the short term, but in the long run, historical data never lies. Ryan Detrick, a market strategist at Carson Group, discovered a set of strong patterns with great reference value by tracing the trend of the US stock market over the past century.

Data shows that the S&P 500 index has risen by over 19% within two months. Throughout the history of the US stock market, such a strong short-term upward trend has only occurred 7 times before. After these 7 market trends, the market reached a highly unified conclusion: all subsequent months, including 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months, saw gains without exception. And with an average increase of over 40% within a year, the long-term potential for excess returns is extremely astonishing.

Just a few weeks ago, the global market was deeply mired in panic over the geopolitical conflict with Iran, with risk aversion dominating trading and a strong pessimistic atmosphere in the market. No one expected that the capital market would quickly reverse and break through strongly. In the current era of rapid flow of information and capital, market sentiment and direction switch extremely quickly, and short-term panic is difficult to reverse the trend of the market in the medium and long term.

Another set of historical data further solidifies the bullish logic: after a 13 week strong phase where the S&P 500 index accumulated gains of over 10%, even occasional daily drops of 2% are not signals of a market peak. Among the 34 similar market trends in history, there were 29 market gains in the following 12 months, with an average annual return rate of 17%. The pullback after a strong rise is mostly a short-term wash up, not the end of the trend.

2、 Long term misconception among the public: the true return rate of the stock market is much stronger than commonly perceived

Most investors severely underestimate the long-term returns of US stocks. The inherent perception of "S&P 500 annualized return of 8%" is widely circulated in the market, but the actual historical data far exceeds this level.

Peter Mallouk, Chief Investment Officer of Creative Planning, accurately reviewed data: From 1980 to present, the S&P 500 index has a real annualized return rate of up to 12%. Despite the long-term volatility of the US stock market, with an average maximum drawdown of up to 14% within the year, and frequent occurrences of deep corrections, black swan shocks, and systemic adjustments, it has still maintained double-digit ultra-high returns for a long time.

The sustained excess returns of the stock market stem from three underlying supports: long-term high global inflation, continuous iteration of technology and industrial innovation, and continuous expansion of the amount of funds entering the market by global residents and institutions. The combination of multiple forces continues to drive the equity market to create massive wealth, and the current market pattern still continues this mature logic.

3、 Profit explosion beyond expectations: Technology companies' performance supports a new bull market

This round of market trend is not emotional speculation, but supported by solid performance fundamentals. The market consensus expectation released by renowned macro analyst Charlie Bilello shows that the overall profit growth rate of the S&P 500 index is expected to soar by 25% this year.

This growth rate is extremely rare in the 100 year history of the US stock market. Except for the short-term recovery and rebound phase after an economic recession, the market rarely experiences such a high overall profit growth rate. The core driving force of this round of market is the real industrial growth brought about by the landing of AI technology. The collective explosion of EPS (earnings per share) of large scientific and technological enterprises has built a solid foundation for the prosperity of this round of capital market, which is completely different from the pure liquidity speculation of the foam market.

4、 Bitcoin cycle indicator hits bottom: Crypto assets confirm basic bottom at major levels

At the same time as the traditional stock market's bull market expectations are clear, cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin are also receiving signals of major cyclical turning points. The core position profit and loss indicators monitored by renowned on chain analyst Benjamin Cowen show that the market structure has undergone a critical reversal.

Currently, the proportion of Bitcoin holdings in a floating loss state across the entire network has officially exceeded the proportion of floating profit holdings. From the perspective of historical cyclical patterns, this cross signal of profit and loss structure is the core sign of the end of the bear market and the approaching bottom of the major cycle. The real opportunity for layout often arises after the signal is received, rather than during the process of market panic and sell-off.

Based on historical data accuracy, Bitcoin is currently approaching the ultimate bottom range of this bear market. According to the cycle deduction, it is highly likely that in the next 12-24 months, cryptocurrency assets will experience a repairing and explosive super market.

5、 Monetary policy turning point landing: all conditions for comprehensive inflation have been fully met

In addition to the resonance of technology, fundamentals, and cycles, macroeconomic policies have also ushered in ultimate benefits. With Kevin Walsh taking over as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the direction of market monetary policy has become completely clear, and the interest rate cut cycle has officially begun.

A loose liquidity environment is the core soil for the rise of all risk assets. The underlying logic of the rise in the stock market and cryptocurrency assets has been fully integrated, with the continuous growth of the AI industry, the continuous weakening of US dollar credit, and the increasing demand for global capital reallocation.

Conclusion

There is always a long short game in the market, and the concerns and doubts of bears have never disappeared, but the trend market will never reverse due to emotions. At present, whether it is the century old historical pattern of the US stock market, the extremely high profit growth rate of enterprises, or the bottom signal of the Bitcoin cycle and the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, all dimensions point to the same conclusion: in the next year, global risk assets are likely to usher in a rapid and significant surge.

Short term fluctuations and panic washing are just processes, and the large-scale bull market trend brought about by industrial innovation, loose liquidity, and cyclical reversal has been officially established.