Jasper De Maere, a researcher at Outlier Ventures, stated that the 2024 halving will be the 5th period of Bitcoin halving, and the price of BTC performed the worst within 125 days after the halving occurred. The price dropped by -8% compared to the halving day, while the average increase in the previous periods was +22%. We believe that the 2016 halving was the last time that the halving had a significant fundamental impact on the BTC price trend. Since then, the BTC block reward scale for miners has become insignificant in the increasingly mature and diverse cryptocurrency market. The strong performance of BTC and the cryptocurrency market after the 2020 halving was purely coincidental, as the halving occurred during a period of unprecedented capital injection after the COVID-19 pandemic, with the US M2 money supply alone increasing by 25.3% that year. Some people believe that the 4-year cycle driven by the halving will still hold in 2024, but the approval of the BTC ETF in January 2024 will drive demand and cause BTC to rise strongly before the halving. This view is incorrect. The approval of the BTC ETF is a demand-driven catalyst, while the halving is a supply-driven catalyst, so they are not mutually exclusive. Within 125 days after the halving, the 5th period (2024) is the worst performing period since the halving and the only period where the BTC price has dropped compared to the halving day.
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